During the period, the jump in taxes and fees led to the loss of 2021Q1's performance.
2021Q1 achieved revenue of 2.05 billion,-2.2% year-on-year, and home net profit of-140 million, compared with-20 million in the same period last year. The performance loss is mainly due to the increase in the cost of the period caused by the rapid expansion of the city. We maintain the company's 2021-2023 EPS forecast of 0.79,1.07,1.43 yuan, and maintain the "buy" rating.
After the impairment, the gross profit margin was repaired obviously, and the settlement volume of 2021Q1 company was slightly insufficient during the period of rapid expansion, but after the continuous provision of large impairment in 2019 and 2020, Q1 gross profit margin increased from + 6.9pct to 29.2% compared with the same period last year, which was higher than the 26.5% for the whole year of 2020. The performance loss is mainly due to the rapid expansion of the urban layout, and most of the projects in hand are in the early stage of development, resulting in the dislocation of the contribution of expenses and income during the period. Q1 accounts for + 7.7pct to 19.3% compared with the same period last year. At the same time, the high growth in sales pushed up the land value-added tax, and the proportion of taxes and surcharges was + 3.0pct to 6.5% compared with the same period last year. 2. The profit and loss of minority shareholders is + 49.4% to 160 million compared with the same period last year, which further leads to profit diversion. Benefiting from the rapid growth of sales, the outstanding resources sold in the company's table at the end of the reporting period were + 29.5% to 28.34 billion compared with the end of 2020, and the coverage of revenue for the whole year of 2020 reached 230%, laying the foundation for future settlement income repair.
Sales continue to grow strongly, and land investment converges and focuses.
2021Q1 achieved full-caliber sales of 9.41 billion, year-on-year + 365.8%; equity sales of 5.26 billion, year-on-year + 223.5%, compared with 2019Q1: 209.5%. The intensity of 2020Q1 land investment converged, focusing on Tianjin, Kunming and Huizhou, adding 926,000 square meters of land storage area, + 2.8% year-on-year; 4.23 billion of total land storage price,-79.9% of the same period last year; and 3.64 billion of the total price of new rights and interests,-48.5% of the same period last year. At the end of 2020, the company accumulated 1634 million square meters of land under construction and the area to be built is + 76% compared with the same period last year. The abundant value of goods paves the way for the sustained high growth of sales.
Optimized debt structure and abundant short-term cash
At the end of the reporting period, the company's loan balance was 64.11 billion, an increase of 13.27 billion. Of these, the bank borrows 8.52 billion yuan, the other loans 4.7 billion, and the trust plan increases only 60 million, further optimizing the debt structure. At the end of the reporting period, the company's net debt ratio, asset-liability ratio deducting accounts received in advance, and short-term cash debt were + 7.8,0.8 and + 162.6pct respectively at the end of 2020 to 212.6%, 84.2% and 305.8%, respectively. Although the leverage ratio continues to rise at a high level, there is plenty of short-term cash to accelerate the turnover of projects at hand.
We are optimistic that sales will step into the 100 billion echelon in 2023 and maintain the "buy" rating. We maintain EPS forecasts for 2021-2023: 0.79,1.07,1.43 yuan, with reference to the comparable company's average PE valuation of 6.2 times in 2021 (Wind consensus expectations). Taking into account the company's high land sales growth in the performance level of the medium-and long-term realization and future group resources coordinated support, maintain 50% valuation premium, maintain the company's 2021 PE valuation of 9.3 times. Maintain the target price of 7.35 yuan and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: industry policy risk, industry downside risk, business risk.