21Q1's home net profit is + 46% compared with the same period last year, maintaining the "buy" rating.
On April 27, the company released its 20-year annual report and 21-year quarterly report: 20-year revenue / return net profit of 20.7 / 210 million yuan, compared with the same period last year, + 2.4% RMB9.1%, basically in line with our expectations (220 million yuan). The company's 21Q1 realized revenue / return net profit of 470 million yuan, 46% compared with the same period last year and 23% higher than 19Q1% 11%. Taking into account the increase in the price of raw materials and the fierce competition in the industry may lead to the pressure on gross profit margin, we reduce the company's 21-22 net profit forecast / introduce 23-year forecast to 2.74pm 347pm 439 million (the previous value is 294pm 369 million in 21-22).
The current comparable company's 21-year Wind consensus forecast an average of 18xPE, we approve the company's 21-year 18xPE, with a target price of 16.22RMB (the previous value is 16.00RMB) and maintain a "buy" rating.
Over the past 20 years, pipeline production and sales have been booming, but the price is under pressure. according to the annual report, the company has a production capacity of 410000 tons, an output of 270000 tons, and a capacity utilization rate of 65.9%. The pipeline production / sales volume is 26.9 million tons, which is 11.6% compared with the same period last year. In the past 20 years, the price / cost / gross profit of the company's pipe unit is 7673x5751, 1922 yuan / ton respectively, compared with the same period last year. The price of pipe products has dropped even more due to the decline in raw material prices and the intensification of competition in the later period, as a result of the optimization of the company's cost control and optimization of the company's cost control. In the same period, PVC/PPR/PE revenue was 15.4 pesque 2.3 / 290 million yuan, compared with the same period last year + 6.5 Universe 3.6Universe 10.3%, and gross profit margin was 22.7%, 33.2%, 19.8%, respectively. 20-year overall gross margin-1.9pct to 23.5% (adjust freight to the same caliber); 21Q1 gross margin 22.1%.
During the 20-year period, the expense rate increased slightly, the 21Q1 net interest rate increased by 10.5% (below the same caliber) over the 20-year period, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.12pct, and the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate increased slightly over the same period last year. The sales expense rate decreased under the influence of the epidemic. The 20-year return net interest rate is 10.3%, year-on-year-1.3pct, of which Q4 is 8.0%, same / month ratio-1.7Compact 3.9pctter21Q1 net interest rate 9.3%, same / month ratio-0.3pct 1.3pct. The company has a remarkable effect in controlling capital and cost reduction, and the net interest rate has increased in the context of rising raw material prices compared with the previous month. The net operating cash flow achieved in the past 20 years was 290 million yuan, which was + 40 million yuan / + 18% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the enhancement of the company's collection capacity. The 20-year income-cash flow ratio from + 4.6pct to 113.7% to + 28 million yuan was due to the increase in Q1 sales payment.
The scale continues to increase, and the market share is expected to increase steadily.
The company is one of the few large comprehensive suppliers of plastic pipes with an annual production capacity of more than 200000 tons in China, based in South China and facing the whole country, but we think that the company is actively expanding the market, the financial statements are excellent, and there is still a lot of room for leverage in the future. and with the company's Hainan and Yunnan production capacity put into production, and according to the annual report, as the company's Hainan base was put into production at the end of the 20th year and continued to climb the slope / Yunnan base was put into production for 21 years. The domestic market share is expected to increase steadily.
Risk tips: raw material prices have risen sharply, new production capacity can not be digested in time, and competition in the industry has intensified.
