The company's 2020 performance is affected by the decline in the prices of coke and chemical products, maintaining a state of small profit. It is expected that the company's product prices will rise significantly with the recovery of the industry in 2021, and the profit flexibility will be enlarged, but ROE may remain low. We maintain the company's "hold" rating.
Net profit fell nearly 24% in 2020. Q1 performance increased nearly sixfold in 2021. The company's 2020 operating income / net profit was 26.74 million yuan (compared with the same period last year), respectively, and the EPS was 0.03 yuan. The company plans to pay 0.05 yuan per share (including tax), with a dividend rate of 149.83% and a corresponding dividend rate of 1.2%.
The company's Q1 operating income / net profit in 2021 was 812 million yuan / 43 million yuan respectively (compared with the same period last year). This is mainly due to the strong coke price performance, higher sales volume and higher gross profit margin.
In 2020, the gross profit margin of the coal coke plate increased, and the production of needle coke was reduced due to the economic downturn. In 2020, the company's coke sales were 1.2704 million tons (year-on-year + 6.06%), unit price 1596.42 yuan / ton (year-on-year-3.93%), unit cost 1433.68 yuan / ton (year-on-year-10.81%), gross profit margin of coal coke plate increased. In the coal-based chemical industry, the company's methanol sales volume is 102100 tons (year-on-year + 0.52%), and the unit price / cost is 1621.25amp 862.72 yuan / ton (year-on-year-12.18% bonus 2.39%). The cost increase is mainly due to a significant increase in the unit electricity cost. The company sells 132 million kilowatt-hours of electricity (year-on-year + 18.46%), and the unit price / cost is 0.32 yuan / degree (year-on-year + 1.11% soybean 48.42%), mainly due to the increase in raw coal prices and the increase in depreciation of stable light hydrocarbon supporting power plants. In terms of new materials, the company's production and sales of needle coke in 2020 were 0.20 million tons (up-93.11% and 20.11% over the same period last year), mainly because the company reduced production according to the market situation, while avoiding capital occupation and reducing inventory. In 2021, Q1 Coke sales volume was 287100 tons (year-on-year + 1.61%), unit price was 2459.05 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 29.27%) and unit cost was 1782.62 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 12.62%), which significantly improved the performance.
Increase or assist the expansion of coal production capacity, and actively distribute hydrogen production capacity to promote industrial transformation. The company has obtained mining warrants from eight coal mines, including Machang Coal Mine and Dayan Coal Mine, with a total production capacity of 4.65 million tons per year, and announced that it intends to raise 1.577 billion yuan in non-public shares for the construction of coal mines, which is expected to further reduce the cost of coal used by the company in the long term. In addition, Qitaihe Baotailong, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, plans to invest in the construction of 2000Nm3/h hydrogen purification and filling equipment to provide hydrogen feedstock for 100,000 t / a coal tar hydrogenation project. after further purification, the surplus hydrogen may be used as fuel cell hydrogen in the future.
Risk factors: steel output is controlled or affects coke demand and price; the output of new materials fluctuates.
Investment suggestion: considering the expected changes in the price of coke and chemical products, we adjust the company's EPS forecast for 2021 to 2022 to 0.15max 0.05 yuan (the original forecast is 0.10max 0.15 yuan), and give the company an EPS forecast of 0.05RMB for 2023. The current share price is 4.08 yuan, which corresponds to 27Universe 82comp82x in 2021 and 2023 respectively. Taking into account the valuation level of the comparable company, we give the company 1 times Ppica B in 2021, corresponding to the target price of 3.98 yuan, maintaining the "hold" rating.
