Core viewpoints
20Q1 homing net profit fell 11% compared with the same period last year. 1) the company's 21Q1 realized operating income of 2.449 billion yuan, + 1% compared with the same period last year, and realized a net profit of 666 million yuan,-11% compared with the same period last year. 2) the annualized ROE7.94%, of the company's 21Q1 is slightly lower than that of 20Q1, nearly 1pct. As of the end of 21Q1, the company's equity multiplier reached 4.01, a further increase of 0.1 from the beginning of the year. 3) excluding other business income, the percentages of brokerage, interest, proprietary, investment banking and asset management net income are 46%, 23%, 15%, 12% and 4%, respectively.
Among them, the proportion of self-management decreased 3pct, while the proportion of brokers increased 3pct to 46%, still ranking first in the contribution of income.
The business income of brokers, investment banks and asset management all increased slightly. 1) 21Q1 achieved a brokerage income of 927 million yuan, + 5% year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the high activity of the A-share market in January-February, but the company's commission rate is expected to remain in the downward channel. 2) 21Q1 achieved 238 million yuan in investment banking revenue, + 25% year-on-year. 21Q1's stock and debt underwriting scale is 56.6 billion yuan, with a market share of 2.34%, the 11th in the industry; but the IPO scale is zero, indicating that the company's equity underwriting strength is still significantly weaker than debt. 2) the company's 21Q1 achieved an asset management income of 89 million yuan, an increase of 4% over the same period last year on a low base.
The contribution of proprietary income continues to decline and needs to be improved, and business and management fees are a drag on performance growth. 1) the company's 21Q1 achieved a self-operating income of 310 million yuan, a decrease of 17% over the same period last year. The size of the company's financial assets has shrunk to a certain extent. As of the end of 21Q1, the company's financial investment assets totaled 71.29 billion yuan, down 4% from the beginning of the year. At the same time, the moneymaking effect in the first quarter was poor, and the continuous decline in the contribution of the company's proprietary sector urgently needs to be improved. 2) 21Q1 achieved a net interest income of 472 million yuan,-4% year-on-year, mainly due to an increase in debt; as of 21Q1, the equity multiplier increased to 4.01, a further increase of 0.1 from the beginning of the year. In addition, the balance of funds raised by the company by the end of 21Q1 reached 31.4 billion yuan, an increase of 0.54% over the beginning of the year, and the scale of the two financing businesses remained stable.
3) 21Q1's business and management fees have increased by 21%, which has become the main factor dragging down the growth of performance.
Financial forecasts and investment suggestions
Maintain the company's 21-23 BVPS forecast value of 5.26, 5.75, 6.27, according to the comparable company valuation, give the 21PB target valuation of 2.40x, corresponding to the target price of 12.64 yuan, maintain the overweight rating.
Risk hint
The impact of the policy on the industry is greater than expected; the dual impact of market fluctuations on industry performance and valuation.
