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世茂股份(600823)点评:业绩小升 销售快增

Shimao shares (600823) comments: a small increase in performance and a rapid increase in sales

申萬宏源研究 ·  Apr 30, 2021 00:00

21Q1's annual revenue is + 31% year-on-year and its performance is + 10% year-on-year, in line with expectations. 2021Q1's annual revenue was 3.69 billion yuan, + 31.4% compared with the same period last year; net profit from home was 240 million yuan, + 9.9% from the same period last year; and basic earnings per share was 0.06 yuan, the same as last year.

The company's gross profit margin and net return rate are 38.7% and 6.4% respectively, which are-0.9pct and-1.3pct respectively compared with the same period last year. The company's three fee rates are 12.4%, + 2.3pct year-on-year, and the sales, management and financial rates are + 2.6pct, + 0.0pct and-0.3pct respectively compared with the same period last year. The investment income of the joint venture was-30 million yuan, and the loss increased by 20% over the same period last year. The amount of accounts received in advance at the end of 21Q1 was 6.3 billion yuan, + 25.9% at the end of last year, and 31% of the real estate settlement income in 2020.

21Q1 sales year-on-year + 59%, 21-year plan + 40%, land / sales area ratio of 92%. 2021Q1 achieved contracted sales of 5.56 billion yuan, an increase of 59% over the same period last year. The contracted sales area reached 289,000 square meters, an increase of 106 percent over the same period last year, and the average sales price was 19200 per cent, up-23 percent over the same period last year. The company started 206 thousand square meters, an increase of 8.4 percent over the same period last year, and completed about 142000 square meters,-38.3 percent over the same period last year. By the end of 2020, the company has an area of about 1034 million square meters under construction and a reserve of about 198.5 billion yuan in corresponding value. The company plans to achieve contract sales of 38 billion yuan in 21 years, and 21Q1 has completed 15 percent of its annual plan. 21Q1 takes 24% of the land / sales amount. In 2021Q1 year, the company acquired two projects in Hangzhou and Changsha, with a new capacity area of about 266000 square meters, a total land amount of 2.59 billion yuan, a rights and interests amount of 1.32 billion yuan, accounting for 51% of the total rights and interests. The amount of land / sales is 23.7%, and the area of land / sales is 92.1%. In addition, the average floor price is 9721 yuan, the average price ratio of land to sales is 50.5%, and the new land reserves are in domestic second-tier cities.

Rental income increased by 114% over the same period last year, the three red lines are firmly in the green file, and the financial situation is still sound. At the end of the 20th year, the company leased real estate construction area of about 1.7 million square meters, 20Q1 leased area of about 162 million square meters, leasing income of about 300 million yuan, an increase of about 114% over the same period last year, a comprehensive rental rate of about 85%, a small decline of about 6 percentage points compared with 2020Q1. The company plans to achieve rent + property management fee income of about 1.49 billion yuan for the whole year. The company's asset-liability ratio is 66.5%, year-on-year + 3.5pct; the company excluding prepayment asset-liability ratio is 65.0%, year-on-year-3.3pct; net debt ratio is 25.6%, year-on-year-1.8pct; cash short-debt ratio is 3.4 times. The three red lines are firmly in the green file, and the finance is still sound.

Investment advice: a small increase in performance, rapid growth in sales, maintain the "buy" rating. The company implements the group's integrated two-wing strategy, with a high-quality residential + commercial land reserve of nearly 2000 billion goods, accounting for 85% of the first and second line. The asset quality is high, the management thinking is changing actively, and the vision of compound sales growth rate of more than 40% in the next five years is put forward. We maintain the 2021-23 forecast of earnings per share of 0.52, 0.62, 0.72 yuan, respectively, corresponding to the 21PE of 8.1X, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk hint: the company's sales performance is not as expected, and the rent of the property held is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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