The performance in 2020 is lower than we expected.
Youa Co., Ltd. announced its 2020 results: the total operating income was 2.329 billion yuan, down 62.8% from the same period last year, and the income from the main business was 2.313 billion yuan, down 62.98% from the same period last year. Excluding the influence of the new income criteria, it fell by 6.91% from the same period last year. The net profit returned to the parent was 139 million yuan, down 56.09% from the same period last year, corresponding to 0.10 yuan per share, which was lower than we expected, mainly due to the epidemic, the change in accounting standards, the termination of the management right transfer contract by subsidiaries, the provision for impairment of goodwill and other factors. The net profit after deduction was 152 million yuan, down 50.10% from the same period last year. In terms of quarter-to-quarter, Q1~Q4 revenue is-72.2% Universe 70.4% Universe 54.1% Universe 54.9%, and net profit is-76.6% Universe 47.8% Universe 12.1% Universe 387.2%, respectively, year-on-year, and net profit is-76.6%, 47.8%, 12.1%, 387.2%, respectively.
Development trend
1. The income from the main business has decreased by 6.53%. In terms of different business formats: (1) the income of the retail industry fell by 63.5% and 2.24% after excluding the impact, mainly due to the periodic closure of stores and the sharp decline in passenger flow during the epidemic, in which the revenue of department stores and professional stores fell by 15.31%. After excluding the impact, the revenue of the same store fell by 0.22%. After excluding the impact, the revenue of the same store fell by 0.22%. (2) the income of the real estate industry also fell by 139.19%, mainly due to the return of sales due to the termination of the original management right transfer contract in Wuyi Square, a subsidiary of Changsha. In terms of online channels, the company's self-built platforms such as "Youa overseas purchase" and "Youawei Store" contributed 39.7016 million yuan in revenue; the holding subsidiary Oupaiyi luxury Exchange generated 780 million yuan in revenue from third-party platforms such as Tmall, Temple Ku, Meili Hui, and Koala Hai Shopping, partly to make up for the offline decline. In terms of exhibition stores, the company opened 2 new Olai in 2020, steadily promoted the franchise 7-11 convenience store business, and opened 17 new convenience stores.
2. After excluding the influence of accounting standards, the gross profit margin decreased slightly by the epidemic. In 2020, the comprehensive gross profit margin increased by 25.6ppt to 45.6% compared with the same period last year. Excluding the impact of accounting standards, the gross profit margin of the main business decreased by 1.38ppt year-on-year, of which the gross profit margin of the retail industry decreased by 1.19ppt, mainly due to the impact of preferential policies for suppliers and partners during the epidemic. From the expense point of view, the expense rate during the period increased to 51.1% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the impact of the superimposed epidemic caused by accounting standards adjustment, but relatively rigid expenses such as rent, employee compensation, depreciation amortization, interest, and so on. The company stepped up cash flow management, and the net operating cash flow increased to 129 million yuan from 12 million yuan in the same period last year, a marked improvement.
3. Pay attention to the improvement of innovation and the progress of reducing cost and increasing efficiency. While consolidating its operation, the company actively carries out innovation and change: the company hopes that offline stores will increase their social attributes and attract incremental passenger flow through brand upgrading, category optimization and the introduction of new business type; at the same time, the company continues to promote the digital construction of offline stores, emphasizing omni-channel integration. In addition, the company plans to focus on reducing costs and efficiency, strengthening turf efficiency management and cost control.
Follow-up focus on transformation and improve the effect.
Profit forecast and valuation
Taking into account the impact of accounting standards and offline retail business pressure, the 2021 earnings per share by 10% to 0.21 yuan, the introduction of 2022 earnings per share forecast 0.22 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 2021 / 2022 16 times / 15 times Pmax E, maintaining the outperform industry rating, lowering the target price by 13% to 4.13 yuan due to the adjustment of earnings forecast, and 20 times / 18 times Pmax E in 2021 / 2022, there is 24% room for increase.
Risk
Competition in the industry intensifies, consumption continues to be depressed, and the epidemic situation is repeated.