Main points of investment:
Announcement: the company issues 2021Q1 quarterly report. During the reporting period, the company's income was 1.567 billion yuan, yoy + 14.76%, net profit 19.72 million yuan, yoy + 40.68%. Q1 performance is in line with market expectations.
2021Q1 earns 1.567 billion yuan and yoy + 14.76%. Considering that large security business has a rigid demand attribute in government expenditure, there are more special needs in 2021. For the whole year, it is expected that large security business will still be the core driver of annual revenue. The volume of large security business is expected to rise in 2021.
2021Q1's single-quarter gross profit margin is 24.22%, which is better than 2020Q1's 1.41pct. The gross margin of the large security business will be the main factor affecting the overall gross margin of the company. In the medium term, the gross margin of safety is expected to increase from three aspects. 1) the company has clearly focused on the quality of development, and will choose projects with higher gross profit margin in the future; 2) the proportion of large security projects is expected to increase after 2020; and 3) regional markets cooperate with local partners to control costs through outsourcing.
The cost of 2021Q1 increases rapidly, but it is still within a reasonable range. Specifically, sales expenses increased by 66.67% compared with the same period last year, and it is expected that less travel in the external environment of 20Q1 will lead to a lower base; management expenses will increase by 15.28% compared with the same period last year, which is in line with revenue growth; and R & D expenses will increase by 112.5%, but the scale is still small, and the main investment direction is expected to be big security. From the perspective of cash outflow, the salary of staff and workers in the cash flow statement increased significantly to 501 million yuan (2020Q1 is 300 million yuan), and the cash payment for goods and services increased to 2.427 billion yuan (2020Q1 is 1.175 billion yuan). Cash outflow is expected to be 2021Q1 stock demand, implying that there are more business opportunities in 2021, such as big security, government cloud and so on.
The slight expansion of the 2021Q1 balance sheet indicates the business opportunities of the government affairs IT industry in 2021. 2021Q1, the company's receivables increased by 26% year-on-year, advance payment increased by 16% year-on-year, advance payment increased by 32%, payable increased by 56%, inventory increased by 103%, and the balance sheet expanded comprehensively, which can also verify the business opportunities of the government affairs IT industry in 2021.
In 2021, the security boom is high, and the "buy" rating is maintained. Cut into the larger market space of the government cloud, big data, big security and other directions, a larger investment in the transition period. To maintain the profit forecast for 2021-2023, it is estimated that the operating income from 2021-2023 will be 99,103 and 10.9 billion yuan, and the net profit will be 5.87,6.31 and 716 million yuan. Maintain a "buy" rating.
