Core ideas:
The company disclosed its 20-year report and 21-year quarterly report: 20-year income increased by 12% to 14 billion yuan; net profit returned to its mother increased 71% to 1.982 billion yuan; the company paid a dividend of 1.30 yuan for every 10 shares. The 21Q1 income increased 47% to 4 billion yuan, and the net profit returned to the mother increased 61% to 773 million yuan.
Sustained high-quality content is the core driving force for the high growth of mango MAU and membership in 2020. In 2020, the average MAU of mango TV increased by 50% + (QM data) compared with the same period last year. Super S-level content not only triggered the growth of users, but also led to the continuous improvement of ROI investment in the overall platform content. "Sister who braved the Wind and waves" and "the next stop is Happiness" are all cases in which super-phenomenal content attracts advertisers.
Both gross profit margin and net profit margin have risen, and economies of scale have been verified. In 2020, the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company increased by 0.4pct and 4.95pct compared with the same period last year, reaching 34% and 14% respectively. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company increased by 38% and 19% respectively compared with the same period last year. The improvement of gross profit margin verifies the continuous controllability and capital efficiency advantage of content investment ROI. The improvement of net profit margin is the verification of the dilution ability of the scale of the company's streaming media platform to the operating expenses rate.
Investment suggestion: according to the content of Mango TV Spring Merchants Association, "Monsoon Theater" represented by "Hunting" will be launched in the second quarter, the show reserve will increase a number of male-oriented and realistic-oriented new category masterpieces, variety shows will continue to explore new IP on the basis of N-generation projects, and the new variety shows will focus on innovative programs such as "serious Singer" and "Goodbye Love". We believe that mango's core competence expansion strategy from variety self-control to show self-made will become the company's long-term moat, and the seasonal fluctuations in short-term content performance will not affect the company's long-term growth logic and core investment value. the core focus of the market on mango is whether users' continuous circle-breaking ability can be verified by popular content. The company's homemade content radius expansion strategy is being realized through monsoon and new category innovation, and the company has shown high robustness in the core streaming media business in the first quarter. Based on the sound performance of 21Q1, we adjust the forecast of net profit from 2021 to 2023 to 2.627 billion yuan (including the expected loss of 200 million yuan in Xiaomang e-commerce business), 3.006 billion yuan and 3.406 billion yuan, and the corresponding fair value is 81.85 yuan per share, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips: advertising, members due to content scheduling factors, the growth rate is not as expected; policy regulatory risk.