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枫叶教育(01317.HK):短期利润率承压 留学需求恢复保障长期增长

Maple Leaf Education (01317.HK): Short-term profit margins are under pressure, demand for study abroad resumes to guarantee long-term growth

申萬宏源研究 ·  Apr 29, 2021 00:00

The income of Maple Leaf Education reached 1.096 billion yuan in the middle of the 21st fiscal year, an increase of 38.4% over the same period last year, and the adjusted net profit was 315 million yuan, an increase of 12.1% over the same period last year. The performance is in line with our expectations. We believe that the income of Maple Leaf Education has increased significantly compared with the same period last year, thanks to the formal merger of Kingsley International School (KIS) and Canadian International School (CIS).

Domestic business revenue declined compared with the same period last year. In the first half of FY21, due to the slow recovery of the overseas epidemic, we believe that the domestic demand for studying abroad has been further suppressed, resulting in a drop of about 2% to 39976 students enrolled in Maple Leaf Education in China in the first half of FY21 compared with the same period last year. We believe that the decline in the number of students in the group directly led to a 2.4% year-on-year decline in the company's revenue in China in the first half of fiscal year 21 to 765 million yuan. However, with the continuous promotion of COVID-19 vaccine, we believe that the overseas epidemic situation will be gradually alleviated. The number of students enrolled by the group as of March 31, 2021 also rebounded significantly, with the total number of students growing by 5.6 per cent year-on-year to 46034, and the number of students enrolled in China also reached 41837. As the number of students gradually picks up, we expect the income of Maple Leaf Education in China to reach 1.57 billion yuan in fiscal year 21, an increase of 2.7% over the same period last year.

The new school consolidation table reduces the group's profit margin. Due to the completion of the merger of KIS and CIS during the reporting period, the Group's overseas distribution scale has gradually expanded, and the number of students has reached about 4100 in the middle of FY21. At the same time, thanks to the average tuition fees of about 80626 yuan from overseas institutions, Maple Leaf Education recorded overseas income of RMB 331 million in the middle of FY21. However, due to the high depreciation amortization and administrative expenses of overseas colleges and universities, the profit of overseas distribution is 54.99 million yuan, and the corresponding profit margin is 16.6%, which is lower than that of China, which is 26.1%. As a result, the Group's adjusted net profit margin fell 6.7 percentage points year-on-year to 28.7% in the middle of fiscal year 21.

Judging from the number of students enrolled as of March 31, 2021, the number of students enrolled in the overseas business of Maple Leaf Education remained stable at 4197, accounting for 9.1 per cent of the total number of students. Therefore, we expect the group's overseas business to contribute revenue of RMB 606 million in fiscal year 21, which will drive the group's total revenue to 2.176 billion yuan in fiscal year 21, an increase of 42.4% over the same period last year.

Maintain the buy rating. As the epidemic situation in China and overseas has gradually alleviated with the promotion of the vaccine, we believe that the company's teaching and student services in China will also be restored one after another, thus leading to an increase in enrollment and revenue. We expect the total number of students in the group to grow at a compound three-year growth rate of 3.5% to about 50492 in fiscal year 23, driving the group's revenue to grow at a three-year compound growth rate of 21.3% to 2.73 billion yuan in fiscal year 23. As a result, we maintain our adjusted net profit forecast of $617 million for the fiscal year 21-22-23 at $885 million. At the same time, we maintain our forecast of earnings per share of RMB0.20 for FY21, RMB0.24 for FY22, and RMB0.29 for FY23. We maintain our target price of HK $2.83, corresponding to 32.9% upside, and maintain our buy rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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