Deeply ploughing allergies and autoimmune reagents, the market space can support the multiple growth of the company. Hao Oobo focuses on the research, development, production and sales of allergies and autoimmune reagents. (1) in 2018, the market size of allergy diagnosis in China is 464 million yuan, and the market share of the company is about 30%. At present, the number of patients with allergic diseases in China is more than 300 million, and the market space for allergy testing is more than 3 billion yuan, which is about 8 times the growth space of the industry. (2) the market size of China's autoimmune testing industry is 1.157 billion yuan in 2018, and the localization rate is only 20%. While the number of major autoimmune diseases in China is about 80 million, and the penetration rate of autoimmune testing is 10%, the corresponding market space can reach 3 billion yuan, while the company, as one of the domestic leaders, has a large growth space with an autoimmune business income of only 67 million in 2019.
We estimate that in 2022, the company will achieve an operating income of RMB 343 million, net profit of RMB 0.56 EPS0.89/1.70/2.74 per share and operating income of RMB 343 million respectively in 2022. As of February 5, 2021, the current share price corresponds to PE of 86.5, 42.6 and 27.9 respectively. Cover for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.
Join hands with Jinyu Medicine and Mindray Medical, the volume will be released soon.
In August 2017, the company's reagents were officially sold in Jinyu Medical system, reaching 19.01 million yuan in 2018 and 28.31 million yuan in 2019 respectively. It is expected to enter the release period in 2021. In July 2019, the company signed a cooperation agreement with Mindray Medical. The first phase of the agreement is for the company to purchase cooperative products directly from Mindray Medical. In the second stage, Mindray Medical will purchase autoimmune reagents from the company, which will be sold by Mindray Medical Marketing team and marketing channels. We estimate that by the end of 2020, the stock of Mindray medical chemiluminescence instruments in China will exceed 7000, with an additional 1000 units in the coming year. At present, the first stage is basically completed, and it is in the preliminary research process of the second stage, which is about to enter the second stage. We believe that the company will quickly release higher-than-expected performance under Mindray's brand influence and strong sales network. The two-way empowerment of brand and quality can increase the competitiveness and moat of both partners at the same time, and resist the encroachment of competitors.
Risk tips: the risk of a sharp decline in performance caused by COVID-19 's epidemic; the risk that the procurement of core raw materials mainly depends on imports; the risk of intensified market competition in subdivided industries; the risk of product pricing reduction; the uncertainty of cooperation and promotion, etc.