Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating and maintain the target price of 47.49 yuan. According to the annual report and quarterly report data, we slightly raised the profit forecast for 2021 and 2022, and added the forecast for 2023. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 is 1.05,1.68,2.56 yuan respectively. Maintain the target price of 47.49 yuan and maintain the "overweight" rating.
The performance of the annual report is in line with expectations, and the performance of 2021Q1 is higher than expected. The company achieved operating income of 1.315 billion in 2020, an increase of 23.84% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 134 million yuan, an increase of 23.54% over the same period last year. In addition to the impact of the epidemic, the main reason why the growth rate is lower than that in previous years is that the revenue recognition criteria have been adjusted from the percentage of completion method to the final test method. Under the blessing of the high prosperity of the industry, 2021Q1 achieved an operating income of 392 million yuan, an increase of 84.70% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 11.8238 million yuan, a year-on-year turnround, and its performance exceeded expectations. Performance growth significantly upward, out of the haze of accounting standards adjustment and the impact of the epidemic.
Annual gross profit margin stabilized, Q1 gross profit margin downward and integrated share of the increase. The company's 2020 gross profit margin was 35.78%, down only 0.28 pct from the same period last year, which is significantly narrower than the decline in previous years, indicating that the gross profit margin has entered a stable range. The gross profit margin in the first quarter is only close to 30%. We judge that this is due to the increase in the proportion of low-margin integrated business caused by the implementation of industry credit creation, which is not sustainable.
There are plenty of orders on hand to lock in high growth in the future. The company's quarterly report revealed that due to strong demand in the industry and the company's main customers as the main demand releasing party, that is, Daihang, Q1 in-hand orders increased by 110.12% in 2021 compared with the same period last year. The company has plenty of orders on hand, and according to the average delivery cycle, the company's revenue will maintain rapid growth in the next few quarters.
Risk hint: the progress of industry innovation is not as expected; the upward risk of labor cost