Main points of investment:
The company announced that its quarterly report for 2021 showed a 4.3% year-on-year increase in net profit from the same period last year, in line with expectations. 1) 21Q1's performance is in line with expectations. 21Q1 realized revenue of 810 million yuan, an increase of 21.0% over the same period last year, and net profit of 130 million yuan, an increase of 4.3% over the same period last year, deducting 130 million yuan of non-net profit, up 23.7% from the same period last year. The increase in revenue is mainly due to the increase in the scale of subsidiary time interconnection business. 2) from the perspective of the split business, the revenue of 21Q1's main business was 150 million yuan, an increase of 0.6% over the same period last year, and the net profit was 11000 yuan, an increase of 5.4% over the same period last year. Time interconnection realized revenue of 660 million yuan, an increase of 27.0% over the same period last year, and net profit of 29.1 million yuan, an increase of 0.4% over the same period last year. 3) share buyback shows management confidence. The company bought back shares twice in the first quarter, with a total of 79.6 million shares, with a total payment of 767 million yuan (excluding transaction fees). The average transaction price was 9.64 yuan, which was still higher than the current stock price, demonstrating management confidence.
The growth rate of GMV picked up quarter by quarter, and the layout effect of new channels began to appear, maintaining a high growth. 1) GMV shows a warming trend. The GMV of 21Q1 reached 9.12 billion yuan, an increase of 59.3% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased month-on-month (the overall GMV of 20Q4 increased by 31.6% over the same period last 2) from the perspective of sub-channels, Ali channels have warmed up, and new channels have maintained a high growth. The GMV of 21Q1 Ali channel was 4.59 billion yuan (50.33%), an increase of 28.6% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was significantly higher than that of 20Q4; the GMV of Panduoduo channel was 2.58 billion yuan (28.2%), an increase of 206% over the same period last year, maintaining a high growth trend; and the GMV of JD.com channel was 1.48 billion yuan (16.3%), an increase of 16.3% over the same period last year. The GMV of VIPSHOP channel was 470 million yuan (5.2%), an increase of 67.5% over the same period last year. 3) in terms of brands, classic Teddy and Cartier crocodiles perform better. 21Q1 annual Antarctic brand GMV reached 8.29 billion yuan, an increase of 58.7% over the same period last year; Cartier crocodile brand GMV reached 710 million yuan, an increase of 57.2% over the same period last year; and classic Teddy brand GMV reached 70 million yuan, an increase of 110.3% over the same period last year.
Time interconnection and multi-business work together, and the scale of business is growing rapidly. 1) to achieve full coverage of mobile media and information streaming media.
In the past 20 years, the company has obtained the core agent of OPPO online service industry and become one of the important agents of Douyin. In 21 years, the company has focused on increasing the layout of short video marketing business, and has become the core agent of Kuaishou KA. The service experience of various types of media is also being enhanced in an all-round way. 1) continuously strengthen the layout of information flow and short video advertising. Through accurate strategic layout and robust internal organizational structure, quickly cooperate with head short video marketing media, around platforms such as short video and live streaming e-commerce, independently incubate and sign celebrities to build KOL matrix, supply chain and media integration platform, keep up with the development trend of fan economy industry, and realize cross-platform self-media promotion.
Cash flow improved compared with the same period last year, and asset quality remained good. 1) 21Q1 accounts receivable increased by 1.127 billion yuan to 1.265 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year, of which the increase in accounts receivable was mainly due to new loans in the current period of the company's factoring business, which was within a reasonable range. 2) the net operating cash flow of 21Q1 was-280 million yuan, compared with-370 million yuan in the same period last year, which was significantly improved compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in cash received from the sale of goods and services.
The company's short-term performance is under pressure, actively layout new channels, reshape the long-term competitiveness of enterprises, and maintain the "overweight" rating. The company's core competitiveness is solid, and the competitive performance-to-price supply chain is expected to promote the company to maintain its profit forecast for 21-23 years. It is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.46 billion yuan, corresponding to PE, which is 1.66 billion yuan, respectively, in 21-23 years, and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: if novel coronavirus is infected with pneumonia for a long time, sales may be lower than expected.