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南极电商(002127):GMV实现高增速 受渠道调整影响业绩增速放缓?

Antarctic e-commerce (002127): GMV to achieve high growth affected by channel adjustment performance growth slowed down?

廣發證券 ·  Apr 27, 2021 00:00

Event: the company's 1Q21 realized revenue of 813 million yuan, + 20.99% compared with the same period last year; realized return net profit of 134 million yuan, + 4.28% year-on-year; deducted non-return net profit of 128 million yuan, year-on-year + 23.73% (profit and loss of government subsidies and entrusting others to invest or manage assets decreased significantly in non-recurrent profit and loss). Specifically: (1) the revenue of this part is 153 million yuan, + 0.62% compared with the same period last year; the total income of the main brand authorization and integrated services business is 137 million yuan, + 0.15% compared with the same period last year; and the net profit of this part is 105 million yuan, + 5.43% compared with the same period last year. (2) the revenue of time interconnection is 660 million yuan, + 26.95% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit is 29 million yuan, + 0.35% compared with the same period last year.

The net interest rate fell and the operating cash flow improved. (1) the company's 1Q21 net interest rate is 16.4%, year-on-year-2.7pp. (2) the realization of operating net cash flow-280 million yuan, + 23.3% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in cash received from the sale of goods and services. 1Q21 accounts receivable and bills 1.32 billion yuan, year-on-year + 11.2%; prepaid accounts 350 million yuan, + 31% year-on-year.

GMV has achieved high growth rate, and new channels such as pinduoduo have sprung up rapidly. The company's 1Q21 achieved GMV91.2 billion yuan, with a high growth rate of + 59.3% compared with the same period last year: (1) Sub-brand, Antarctic GMV82.9 billion yuan, year-on-year + 58.7%, Cartier GMV 710 million yuan, year-on-year + 57.2%, classic Teddy GMV 70 million yuan, year-on-year + 110.3% (2) for sub-platforms, the GMV of Ali, JD.com, pinduoduo and VIPSHOP increased by 28.6%, 59%, 206.3% and 67.5% respectively compared with the same period last year. Emerging channels such as pinduoduo have sprung up rapidly, the company has complied with the rules of online diversion, the expansion of products and the accumulation of traffic have become more favorable, and the superiority of the brand authorization model has been highlighted.

Profit forecast and investment advice: the company's 21-23 net return profit is expected to be 1.61 billion PE, 1.94 billion yuan respectively, giving the 21-year core business 21X PE time interconnection 10X PE valuation, corresponding to a reasonable value of 10.58 yuan per share, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk tips. The development of brand GMV may not be as expected, the overall revenue growth rate of e-commerce platform may not be as expected, and the time interconnection operation may not be as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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