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B站内容生态战略将开花结果,高盛看多至1219港元

Station B's content ecosystem strategy will blossom, and Goldman Sachs is bullish on HK$1,219

富途資訊 ·  Apr 28, 2021 10:57

Bilibili Inc. 's share price has been strong recently, rising more than 4% in intraday trading today, setting a new high for the listing of Hong Kong stocks, with a cumulative increase of more than 23% in the past five trading days.

Recently, a number of big banks have expressed their views on Bilibili Inc..

Piyush Mubayi, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Group, gave Bilibili Inc. a "buy" initial rating, with a target price of HK $1219. The Bilibili Inc. video platform is particularly popular among Generation Z in China, and the number of monthly active users is expected to reach 400m by 2023, according to the research report.

Mubayi also stressed that Bilibili Inc. 's "unique" value proposition lies in its active community and the company's deep understanding of Generation Z. Mubayi expects that Bilibili Inc. will continue to maintain a strong growth momentum in the future.

China Merchants recently released a research report, "content Ecological Strategy will blossom and bear fruit in 21 years", maintaining Bilibili Inc. 's buy rating and giving US stocks a target price of US $146.

The main contents are as follows:

Bilibili Inc. invests in Xinxin network to further enhance his game distribution ability.

Bilibili Inc. 's revenue in the first quarter of 2021 is expected to reach 3.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 64%, mainly because the growth rate of mobile game business is expected to be the same as the same period last year. Bilibili Inc. 's core games "Destiny-Crown designation" and "Princess Link" performed poorly in the first quarter, while the incremental contribution brought by the intermodal game "original God" was limited and could not be fully compensated.

Fortunately, Bilibili Inc. 's game reserve contains 14 proxy games that have won version numbers. these include the two-dimensional games "Swordsman in Black: ace", "Mobile Warriors: fusion", "Princess Canterbury and the Knight awakens the Magic Adventure of the Sword of Champions", and blockbuster intermodal transport games such as NetEase, Inc's Harry Potter: magic Awakening and Diablo: immortal. And Tencent's "League of Legends Mobile Games" are expected to contribute significantly to the game business in the rest of this year.

In addition, Bilibili Inc. completed a HK $960 million strategic investment in Xinxin Network and acquired a 4.72 per cent stake on April 13. We believe that this investment can bind the interests of these two emerging game distribution channels (Bilibili Inc. and TapTap), which are most favored by game manufacturers, thus attracting more cooperation from game content providers.

We believe that with the differentiated content ecology of the two communities and similar user groups, Bilibili Inc. can also further enhance his own game distribution ability.

VAS and advertising will continue to be the main drivers of growth in 2021

Non-game business revenue is expected to record a strong year-on-year growth of 123% in the first quarter of 21. Among them, VAS business revenue is expected to record 97% year-on-year growth by virtue of richer OGV content supply. It is expected to launch three more S+-level variety shows in 21.

In addition, Activision Blizzard (ATVIUS) and Bilibili Inc. announced on April 15 that they had reached a strategic cooperative relationship for several years. Bilibili Inc. will obtain the exclusive rights and distribution rights of live broadcast media in China for the 2021 season of the Watchman Vanguard League, and will be responsible for the in-depth development of the league's commercial rights and interests, while assisting in the promotion of the event in the region.

We believe that "Watch Vanguard League", as one of the most popular e-sports events in the world, will attract many live broadcast users, combined with Bilibili Inc. 's previous broadcast rights of "League of Legends" S match. It will lay a long-term and solid foundation for Bilibili Inc. 's live broadcast business.

On the other hand, we expect advertising revenue to continue to record accelerated growth of 202% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the rapid growth of the company's users and Bilibili Inc. 's continued increase in brand attractiveness.

Bilibili Inc. 's 2021 New year's Eve party was once again a great success, with the live broadcast reaching a peak of 250 million. At the same time, it also attracted many new brands such as "vigor Forest" as sponsors, bringing considerable advertising sponsorship revenue to Bilibili Inc. in the first quarter of 2021.

Finally, we expect ecommerce and other revenues to record strong year-on-year growth of 150 per cent in the first quarter, mainly due to the low base impact of the outbreak in the first quarter of 20.

Maintain the buy rating

In terms of profit margin, we expect Bilibili Inc. 's operating loss rate to increase by 2.2 percentage points month-on-month in the first quarter of 2001, mainly due to the company's greater investment in user acquisition and brand building. We also expect the net loss of non-GAAP to reach 685 million yuan, while the net loss rate of non-GAAP will reach 18.1%.

Looking to the future, we will increase Bilibili Inc. 's forecast income for the fiscal year of 21-22-23 by 2%, 3%, 5%, and reduce the non-GAAP net profit margin by 3.8, 4.5, 5.8 percentage points, respectively, to reflect:

1) more optimistic expectations for non-game business; and 2) increased investment from clients.

We maintain our buy rating on Bilibili Inc. and slightly lower our target price to US $146from US $151to reflect the following combined effects: 1) the increase in the number of shares outstanding as a result of the secondary listing in Hong Kong; and 2) the increase in net cash.

Edit / Ray

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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