2021Q1 performance announcement deducted non-net profit exceeded expectations, maintained "buy" rating company issued 2021Q1 performance announcement, 2021Q1 income 813 million yuan (+ 20.99%), return net profit 134 million yuan (+ 4.28%), deducted non-return net profit 128 million yuan (+ 23.73%). 2021Q1 revenue is in line with expectations, deducting non-net profit exceeding expectations, it is expected that the signage fee for the whole year of 2021 will increase by double digits, pinduoduo channel monetization rate will be significantly improved, 2021Q2 is expected to usher in a performance inflection point. We maintain the profit forecast and expect the net profit from 2021 to 2023 to be 15.4,20.9 and 2.7 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to the EPS of 0.63,0.85 and 1.1yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 13.2,9.8 and 7.6 times respectively, maintaining the company's "buy" rating.
Revenue split: the profitability of this part of the business has improved, time interconnection led to revenue growth, 2021Q1 realized revenue of 153 million yuan (+ 0.62%), the company's main business income of brand authorization and integrated services was 137 million yuan (+ 0.15%), and the net profit of the company was 105 million yuan (+ 5.43%). The time interconnection business continues to expand high-quality customer resources. 2021Q1 achieved revenue of 660 million yuan (+ 26.95%) and net profit of 29 million yuan (+ 0.35%).
GMV split: the growth rate of 2021Q1GMV is accelerated, and the inventory digestion of signage accelerates 2021Q1 to achieve GMV91.24 billion yuan (+ 59.25%). From a multi-channel point of view, pinduoduo continued to maintain rapid growth, and Ali / JD.com / pinduoduo / VIPSHOP respectively achieved GMV45.92/14.84/25.75/4.73 of RMB 100 million, an increase of 28.64% over the same period last year. 58.97% and 67.46%, accounting for 50.33%, 16.26%, 28.22% and 5.18%, respectively.
The inventory of signage increased due to the slowdown in GMV growth in 2020 has been well digested by 2021Q1.
In 2021, pinduoduo's high growth and monetization, release of multi-category effects, and time interconnection synergy in the long run, under the scale, supply chain and digital moat, information investment, business innovation, enriching brand categories, moving from a low-price track to a quality and R & D-oriented value track will enhance the company's competitiveness. In the short term, pinduoduo channel has high growth and scale effect, and is expected to become the company's largest channel by 2022. The improvement of the monetization rate of pinduoduo channel will reverse the expectation that the overall GMV growth rate of the company slows down and the monetization rate continues to decline when Ali is the main channel. The higher-than-expected net profit of 2021Q1 can look forward to the performance inflection point of the company this year, and look forward to the release of multi-category effect, time interconnection and synergy of the company in 2021.
Risk hints: the platform competition pattern changes, category expansion is not as expected, and the monetization rate is not as expected.