Event
On April 23, Zhongtian hardcover released the business report for the first quarter of 2021.
Comment
21Q1's newly signed order has achieved remarkable results. The company's Q1 newly signed order is 720 million yuan,-8.0% month-on-month, and the unsigned order is 1.36 billion yuan, an increase of 86 million yuan compared with the end of last quarter. Taking into account the difference in statistical caliber, the sum of the company's newly signed orders and the cumulative amount of unsigned orders that have won the bid in the current period, minus the cumulative amount of unsigned orders in the previous period, can better reflect the actual situation of the company's newly signed orders. according to this caliber, the company's newly signed order is 800 million yuan. In view of the fact that Q1 is affected by the Spring Festival holiday, we think the company's Q1 signing data are eye-catching.
21Q1 performance exceeded expectations and high growth. Over the past 20 years, the company achieved operating income of 2.56 billion yuan, + 9.6% compared with the same period last year, and net profit of 189 million yuan, + 3.1% compared with the same period last year. Among them, Q4 achieved operating income of 710 million yuan in a single quarter,-9.3% of the same period last year, and project settlement was not as expected as a drag on performance. In addition, according to the results announcement, the company expects 21Q1 to return to a net profit of 28 million yuan to 32 million yuan, corresponding to a year-on-year growth range of [40%, 60%], which is higher than we had expected. It should be noted that the high growth of the company's 21Q1 is not due to the low base effect under the influence of the 20Q1 COVID-19 epidemic. In fact, the company's 20Q1 revenue is basically the same as that of 19Q1, so 21Q1 shows higher growth even relative to 19Q1.
We believe that the newly signed orders from the company's 20Q4 and 21Q1 will gradually turn into revenue in 21 years. At the same time, according to the construction arrangements of the developers, 21 years is a year with a higher delivery area in the industry as a whole, and it is expected that the newly signed orders of the company's 21Q2 will also maintain a good level, and the newly signed orders of 21H1 will lay the foundation for 21 years of high revenue growth.
Investment suggestion
We estimate that the EPS of the company in 2021-2023 is 1.73,2.32 and 3.08 yuan. Maintain the "buy" rating and maintain the target price of 62.96 yuan.
Risk hint
Real estate regulation exceeded expectations, business expansion fell short of expectations, and major shareholders lifted the ban.
