Comments on the first Quarterly report of Cofco Sugar Industry (600737): the upward price of sugar, the leading sugar industry in China, contributes to the release of performance.

安信證券 · Apr 27, 2021 00:00

　　事件：2021 年4 月27 日，公司发布2021 年一季报。Q1 公司实现营业收入42.27 亿元，同比增长50.7%；实现归母净利润2.01 亿元，同比增长51.39%。

　　点评：

　　糖源掌控能力强，主营业务稳定：公司主营业务报告食糖及番茄业务两大块，2020 年糖相关业务收入占比达92.1%，番茄加工占7.5%。1）食糖：分为自产糖、原糖炼糖、贸易糖三大块，糖源掌控能力行业领先。2020 年经营量超300 万吨，占全国消费总量的21%。自产糖板块：

　　2020 年公司共实现营收43.6 亿（-0.5%），毛利率为15.4%（+1.4pcts）。

　　国内产能约70 万吨/年， Tully 海外糖产能约30 万吨/年；贸易糖板块，2020 年公司实现营收124.2 亿（+27.3%），毛利率为9.1%（-0.07pcts）；原糖炼糖板块，公司2020 年实现收入25.2 亿（+2.8%），毛利率达16.4%（+5.1pct），产能约170 万吨/年，另有20 万吨在建产能；2）番茄加工：公司是目前国内最大、世界第二的番茄加工企业，2020 年共实现营收15.77 亿，毛利率32%（+6pcts）。全年鲜番茄加工量为165 万吨，国内市占率超30%，全球市占率约5%。

　　糖价扰动因素繁杂，近期减产催化糖价上行：近期国际糖价表现强势，ICE 原糖4 月23 日收于16.9 美分/磅，4 月以来涨幅14.7%，较年初上涨约9%。外糖通过影响进口成本从而影响国内糖价，其价格通常受巴西、印度、泰国、欧洲等主产地的产量及政策影响。其中，巴西自去年10 月以来的干旱天气增加减产预期，根据丰益国际最新预期，巴西中南部2021/22 年度糖产量预计将从上榨季的3850 万吨下降至3100-3300 万吨。此外，欧洲冻害天气同样引发市场对于食糖供给偏紧的担忧，催化糖价上行；内糖受外糖价格上行拉动及国内需求恢复拉动，呈上涨状态。根据海关总署数据，Q12021 中国累计进口糖124 万吨，同比增加 85 万吨。柳州白砂糖现货均价4 月23 日收于5470 元/吨，4 月以来涨幅达2.2%，较年初上涨4.2%。

　　国内糖业龙头，业绩有望进一步释放：由于公司经营利润同糖价直接相关，因此公司估值与通常与糖价呈正相关关系，且估值大概率先行于糖价。而由于糖的可存放时间较长，糖价上行时更高的糖库存量可为公司带来高于同业的利润。公司2020 年末糖库存量为39.1 万吨，远高于其他糖企库存量，截至2021 年Q1，公司存货达75 亿，较2020年底上升了10.2%。我们认为公司当前较高的糖库存量，有望在糖价上行周期中助力公司业绩进一步释放。

　　投资建议：我们预计，2021 年-2023 年的公司净利润分别为9.5 亿元，12.6 亿元，16.1 亿元，EPS 分别为0.44/0.59/0.75 元/股。给予“增持-A”

　　评级。

　　风险提示：政策变动风险；原油价格波动风险；汇率变化风险

Event: on April 27, 2021, the company released its quarterly report for 2021. Q1 achieved an operating income of 4.227 billion yuan, an increase of 50.7% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 201 million yuan, an increase of 51.39% over the same period last year.

Comments:

The ability to control sugar sources is strong, and the main business is stable: the company's main business reports sugar and tomato business. In 2020, sugar-related business income accounted for 92.1%, and tomato processing accounted for 7.5%. 1) Sugar: it is divided into three parts: self-produced sugar, raw sugar refining sugar and trade sugar. It has the leading ability to control sugar sources in the industry. In 2020, the operating volume exceeded 3 million tons, accounting for 21% of the country's total consumption. Self-produced sugar plate:

In 2020, the company realized revenue of 4.36 billion (- 0.5%) and gross profit margin of 15.4% (+ 1.4pcts).

Domestic production capacity is about 700,000 tons / year, Tully overseas sugar production capacity is about 300,000 tons / year; trading sugar sector, the company achieved revenue of 12.42 billion (+ 27.3%) in 2020, gross profit margin of 9.1% (- 0.07pcts); raw sugar refining sector, the company achieved revenue of 2.52 billion (+ 2.8%) in 2020, gross profit margin of 16.4% (+ 5.1pct), production capacity of about 1.7 million tons / year, and another 200000 tons under construction. 2) Tomato processing: the company is currently the largest tomato processing enterprise in China and the second in the world, with a total revenue of 1.577 billion in 2020 and a gross profit margin of 32% (+ 6pcts). The processing volume of fresh tomatoes in the whole year is 1.65 million tons, with a domestic market share of more than 30% and a global market share of about 5%.

Sugar price disturbance factors are complex, recent production reduction catalytic sugar price upward: the recent international sugar price performance is strong, ICE raw sugar closed at 16.9 cents / pound on April 23, up 14.7% since April, about 9% higher than at the beginning of the year. Foreign sugar affects the domestic sugar price by affecting the import cost, and its price is usually affected by the output and policies of major producing areas such as Brazil, India, Thailand, Europe and so on. Among them, the dry weather in Brazil since October last year is expected to increase and reduce production, according to Fengyi International's latest forecast, sugar production in south-central Brazil is expected to drop from 38.5 million tons in the last crushing season to 3100-33 million tons in 2021. In addition, the freezing weather in Europe also raised concerns about tight sugar supply in the market, which catalyzed the rise in sugar prices, while domestic sugar rose, driven by the upward price of foreign sugar and the resumption of domestic demand. According to the General Administration of Customs, Q12021 China imported a total of 1.24 million tons of sugar, an increase of 850000 tons over the same period last year. The average spot price of Liuzhou white sugar closed at 5470 yuan per ton on April 23, up 2.2 per cent since April and 4.2 per cent since the beginning of the year.

The performance of the domestic sugar industry leader is expected to be further released: since the company's operating profit is directly related to the sugar price, the company's valuation is usually positively related to the sugar price, and the valuation is probably the first to take the lead in the sugar price. Because the sugar can be stored for a long time, the higher sugar inventory when the sugar price goes up can bring higher profits for the company than the same industry. At the end of 2020, the company's sugar inventory was 391000 tons, much higher than that of other sugar enterprises. As of Q1 in 2021, the company's inventory reached 7.5 billion, an increase of 10.2% over the end of 2020. We believe that the company's current high sugar inventory is expected to contribute to the further release of the company's performance in the upward cycle of sugar prices.

Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 is 950 million yuan, 1.26 billion yuan and 1.61 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS is 0.44, 0.59 and 0.75 yuan per share respectively. Give "increasing holdings-A"

Rating.

Risk hints: policy change risk; crude oil price fluctuation risk; exchange rate change risk

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中粮糖业(600737)一季报点评：国内糖业龙头糖价上行助力业绩释放

Comments on the first Quarterly report of Cofco Sugar Industry (600737): the upward price of sugar, the leading sugar industry in China, contributes to the release of performance.

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