Core ideas:
The epidemic affects the annual performance, and the overall business situation picks up obviously quarter by quarter, and the performance is in line with expectations.
According to the company's 2020 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2021, the company achieved operating income of 4.571 billion yuan in 2020, down 18.19% from the same period last year, and its mother's net profit was 306 million yuan, down 33.91% from the same period last year. Among them, the revenue in the fourth quarter of 2020 was 1.486 billion yuan, an increase of 8.17% over the same period last year; the net profit of returning to the mother was 281 million yuan, an increase of 157.28% over the same period last year. In the first half of 2020, the company was seriously affected by the epidemic, and the company's direct sales accounted for a high proportion of profits, which dragged down profits obviously.
In the first quarter of 2021, the company realized operating income of 1.175 billion yuan, an increase of 168.71% over the same period of 20Q1 and 10.19% over the same period of 19Q1. The company realized a net profit of 75 million yuan, a turnround of losses over the same period of 20Q1, and an increase of 12.23% over the same period of 19Q1.
Significant achievements have been made in reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and the net interest rate of 20Q4 has reached a new high. In terms of gross profit margin, the single-quarter gross profit margin of the company's 20Q1-Q4 is 35.04%, 43.18%, 53.16% and 53.17% respectively, and the profitability improves quarter by quarter. After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the company reduced costs and increased efficiency, and achieved remarkable results in cost management and control. The net profit rate of 20Q4 reached 19% in a single quarter, the highest in the company's history.
We expect the results in 21-23 to be 0.31, 0.37 and 0.44 yuan per share respectively. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 61.65,70.38 and 7.759 billion yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023, an increase of 34.9%, 14.2% and 10.2% respectively over the same period last year, and the net profit of 5.02,6.05 and 718 million yuan respectively, up 64%, 20.4% and 18.8% respectively over the same period last year. We are optimistic about the strategic transformation of the company's gradual positioning of retail platforms, as well as its strong brand power in the high-end furniture market, and the service ability of direct stores is stronger than that of the same industry. for detailed logic, please refer to our previous in-depth report "Mick Home: transforming platform businessmen. Growth is expected to enter the fast lane." We maintain the company's 2021 22xPE valuation, corresponding to a fair value of 6.82 yuan per share, and maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips. The opening speed is not as fast as expected, the competition in the industry is intensified, and the mode transformation is not as expected.