Report guide
20A realized revenue of 4.571 billion yuan (- 18.19%), net profit of 306 million yuan (- 33.91%), and non-return net profit of 101 million yuan (- 74.28%), which mainly came from non-current assets disposal income of 167 million. 20Q4 realized revenue of 1.486 billion yuan (+ 8.17%) and net profit of 281 million yuan (+ 157.28%). The high profit of Q4 was mainly due to: 1) the rent-free items of the store epidemic were decided on Q4, and the rent of direct stores was greatly reduced; 2) advertising fees were concentrated on Q2-3 to e-commerce, while Q4 was less; 3) with the growth of operation scale, Q4 gross profit margin increased to 53.17% (+ 1.69pct).
21Q1 realized revenue of 1.175 billion yuan, an increase of 10.19% compared with the same period last year, an increase of 168.71% respectively, and a net profit of 75 million yuan (- 267 million yuan in the same period last year, an increase of 12.23% over the same period last year).
At the same time, the company announced a 21-year business plan: to achieve revenue of 6.035 billion (compared with 19 years + 8%).
Main points of investment
Meike Meijia: the design studio type direct operation model is carried out, the fixed installation new track contributes to the increment 20 years direct operation business realization income 2.969 billion yuan (- 18.73%), the whole year net opens 7 to 155stores. During the period, the company expanded the MHF full-case design studio model, and is expected to build 100 design studio stores in 21 years. At the same time, develop a new fixed equipment customized track, tap customer value, fixed orders during the period + 158%. The revenue of 21Q1's direct business reached 696 million, which was + 273.22% compared with the same period last year, which was basically the same as that of 19Q1.
ART franchise: 20 years of operating efficiency, 21 years of accelerated channel fission 20 years of joining business revenue of 306 million yuan (- 34.64%), net opening of 52 to 237 stores, the company adjusts its store opening strategy (attaching importance to and optimizing the quality of franchisees). In the past 20 years, the franchisee has achieved 9% year-on-year growth, and will accelerate fission in 21 years, with the goal of opening 500 stores. The revenue of 21Q1's joining business reached 86 million, which was + 718.94% compared with the same period last year, which was basically the same as that of 19Q1.
International Wholesale: the demand in the United States is strong, and the on-hand orders are fully guaranteed. The wholesale business has achieved revenue of 1.263 billion yuan (- 9.63%) in 21 years, but thanks to the hot US property market and high demand, the company's ART/Caracole/Rowe unshipped orders are respectively year-on-year + 233% Universe 97% Universe 308%, and are expected to convert revenue in 21 years. 21Q1 international wholesale business achieved revenue of 385 million, year-on-year + 60.09%, year-on-year 19Q1 growth of 42.8%.
Employee stock ownership plan empowers, demonstrates confidence in development
On April 9, the company released a draft employee stock ownership plan, accounting for 4.3% of the current share capital, including 5 directors and executives and 73 core backbone. According to the performance assessment, the net profit of 21-22 years is 550 million yuan (compared with 19 years + 18.53%) and 660 million yuan (compared with 550 million + 20%) respectively.
As a result of the epidemic, the gross profit margin has declined, and the expense rate has increased slightly.
20A gross profit margin decreased by 3.89% to 48.70% compared with the same period last year. During the period, the expense rate increased by 2.38% to 45.13% compared with the same period last year, of which the sales expense rate + 1.9pct to 31.75%; the management expense rate + 0.82pct to 11.04%; and the financial expense rate also reduced 0.34pct to 2.34%. 20A homing net interest rate 6.7% (- 1.6pct). The contract liability at the end of the period was 171 million yuan, 30 million less than that at the beginning of the period, and the inventory was 1.977 billion yuan, 113 million less than at the beginning of the period. The net operating cash flow of the company during the period was 621 million (+ 2.6%).
Profit forecast and valuation
We estimate that the company will achieve revenue of 60.58 million in 21-23, an increase of 32.52% / 17.02% of 16.82%, a year-on-year increase of 5.51% of net profit of 6.62% and a year-on-year increase of 79.67%, 20.26% and 18.34% of the company's revenue of 60.58% and 82.81 billion, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to the 21-23 PE 17.3X/14.38X/ 12.15X, maintaining the "Buy" rating.
The risk indicates that the competition in the industry intensifies and the expansion of the joining channel is not up to expectations.
