Event: on April 26, 2021, the company released its quarterly report. During the reporting period, the company realized a net profit of 451 million yuan belonging to the shareholders of the parent company, an increase of 350.19% over the same period last year, and operating income of 2.344 billion yuan, an increase of 76.83% over the same period last year.
Comment
The performance in the first quarter increased significantly: according to the announcement, the company achieved a net profit of 451 million yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 350.19% over the same period last year, and confirmed net investment income of 331 million yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 5.77% over the same period last year, mainly contributed by China Coal Huajin.
The volume and price of coke business rose in the first quarter: the company produced 856100 tons of coke in the first quarter, an increase of 23.05% over the same period last year, and sales of coke increased by 811700 tons over the same period last year. The average price per ton of coke was 2092.11 yuan per ton, an increase of 36.87% over the same period last year. The purchase volume of raw coal in the first quarter was 1.1301 million tons, up 28.04% from the same period last year, and the unit purchase price was 1179.87 yuan / ton, up 2.26% from the same period last year.
The price of chemical products rose: except industrial naphthalene (down 1.64% from the same period last year) and pure benzene (down 2.17% from the same period last year), the prices of other chemical products rose sharply in the first quarter, with the highest price increase of 5983.31 yuan / ton for carbon black, up 54.19% from the same period last year, followed by asphalt, with a price of 2797.15 yuan per ton in the first quarter, up 42.8% from the same period last year. The price of methanol was 1735.56 yuan / ton, up 19.74% from the same period last year.
The improvement of the coke industry is expected to bring greater performance flexibility for the company. The plight of low concentration and substantial overcapacity in the coke industry has been gradually solved with the help of industry capacity removal. At present, the capacity utilization rate of the industry has been raised to a higher level, while capacity removal is still going on. Under the background of high utilization rate of actual production capacity, the price increase caused by coke supply contraction is more flexible, and coke price is expected to rise. With the continuous implementation of the capacity removal of the coke industry, the supply and demand pattern of the industry will change from the previous surplus to the net shortage. It is expected that after 2021, the industrial concentration will increase, the two major problems troubling the industry will be fully solved, and the industry will recover. It is expected to achieve sustainable profits. In the short term, according to the Bureau of Statistics, the growth rate of coke production in March was 4.7% lower than the 8.9% growth rate of downstream pig iron, that is, the growth rate of downstream demand was higher than that of supply, and the tight supply pattern remained unchanged. Therefore, on the whole, the coke supply side has been tightened under the influence of environmental protection inspection and shutting down the backward production capacity, and the raw material end price has gone up, which has formed a strong support to the coke price, and the coke price will show a stable and medium-strong trend in the short term.
Investment advice: increase holdings-An investment rating, 6-month target price of 7.95 yuan. We estimate that the return net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.415 billion yuan for 19.58, 2.197, and 1.23 yuan per share, respectively, for the corresponding EPS of 0.99, 1.11 and 1.23 yuan per share, respectively.
Risk tips: Coke prices fell sharply, chemical products prices fell sharply.