Core point of view
The return to home net profit increased slightly by 12%. The ROE is slightly higher than the industry average. 1) the company achieved an operating income of 10.352 billion yuan in 2020, + 7% year on year, and a net profit of 2.525 billion yuan, + 12% over the same period last year.
2) the company's ROE7.52%, in 2020 is nearly 0.7pct higher than the same period last year. The equity multiplier reached 3.91 at the end of the year, an increase of 0.57 compared with the beginning of the year. 3) the proportion of net income from brokerage, self-management, interest, investment banking and asset management reached 35%, 20%, 20%, 11% and 3%, respectively. The proportion of brokers increased 10pct while self-management decreased 5pct.
The market share of stock-based trading and financing has risen and fallen, and the net income of brokers and interest has greatly increased compared with the same period last year. 1) the company achieved 3.6 billion yuan in brokerage business income in the past 20 years, + 48% year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the 63% increase in daily average stock turnover of A shares compared with the same period last year. The market share of the company's 20-year stock-based turnover increased to 2.86% by 0.27pct, the second year in a row. 2) at the end of the year, the balance of the two financial institutions was + 41% to 31.9 billion yuan (the market share dropped slightly to 1.97%), and the superimposed interest expense was-13% year-on-year, helping the company to achieve a net interest income of 2.083 billion yuan, + 39% year-on-year. 3) the annual asset management income of the company is 328 million yuan, which is-15% compared with the same period last year. By the end of 20 years, the asset management scale of the company reached 146.959 billion yuan, an increase of 8.6% over the same period last year, and the active management scale reached 118.732 billion yuan, accounting for 81%.
In terms of investment banks, strong debt stocks are still weak, and proprietary performance is poor as a whole. 1) the company's annual investment banking revenue reached 1.092 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 2% compared with the same period last year. In the past 20 years, the scale of equity underwriting (IPO+ refinancing) is 15.348 billion yuan, with a market share of 0.91%, ranking only 17th. The scale of debt underwriting (corporate bonds + corporate bonds + ABS) is 126.338 billion yuan, with a market share of 2.14%, ranking 10th. It can be seen that debt underwriting is better than equity. 1) at the end of 2000, the scale of self-operated assets reached 63.8 billion yuan, + 19% compared with the same period last year, of which equity reached 8.8 billion yuan, + 24% compared with the same period last year, accounting for a slight increase to 14%. However, the overall investment performance of the company is poor, and the rate of return has declined obviously. in 2020, the company achieved only 2.089 billion yuan in self-income,-14% compared with the same period last year, which is weaker than the industry average.
Financial Forecast and Investment suggestion
According to the latest financial data and the latest equity, we have slightly adjusted the 21-22 BVPS from 5.42max 6.01 to 5.26max 5.75, with a new 22BVPS of 6.27. according to the comparable Company Law, we give 21PB a target valuation of 2.50x, corresponding to the target price of 13.16RMB, and maintain the overweight rating.
Risk hint
The impact of the policy on the industry is greater than expected; the dual impact of market fluctuations on the performance and valuation of the industry.
