Hefei Department Store (000417): Q1 deducts non-net profit with an increase of 110.5%. Continue to pay attention to the effectiveness of business transformation.

中金公司 · Apr 26, 2021 00:00

　　2021 年一季度业绩符合市场预期

　　合肥百货公布2021 年一季度业绩：收入19.02 亿元，同比增长9.0%；归母净利润1.08 亿元，同比增长80.3%，对应每股净利0.14元，符合此前业绩预告区间；扣除非经常性损益后净利润0.81 亿元，同比增长110.5%。公司1Q21 收入增速回正，盈利能力有所改善。

　　发展趋势

　　1、收入增速恢复，Q1 实现同增9.0%。伴随疫情影响逐渐消除，公司经营逐季向好，叠加低基数效应，Q1 同比增速自去年以来首次回正。分业态看：①百货及家电业态：我们预计线下客流回升、终端需求回暖将带动百货/家电经营改善；②超市业态：我们预计受高基数影响，Q1 及上半年有压力；③农产品交易：公司继续推进农产品市场项目投入及落地，我们预计农产品流通业务有望保持稳健。

　　2、盈利能力有所改善，扣非净利率修复至4.3%。公司Q1 实现毛利率31.2%，同比提升2.3ppt。期间费用率合计同比下降0.9ppt，销售费用率同比下降0.9ppt 至6.4%，管理费用率同比下降0.6ppt至13.9%，财务费用率同比上升0.7ppt 至1.2%，主因执行新租赁准则后利息费用增加。综合来看，Q1 净利率同比提升2.2ppt 至5.7%，扣非后净利率同比上升2.1ppt 至4.3%。

　　3、持续关注业务转型变革措施成效。现阶段，公司推动“双主业+”战略转型：①主业调整：百货业态推进产品结构优化升级，夯实优势品类、引进新品牌，同时以创新营销活动提升精准运营力、优化客群结构；农产品业务开展多渠道招商、推进物流园及冷库项目建设、提升供应链能力；②业态协同：开展全业态联动营销，“农+超”模式融合发展，加强百货、电器顾客资源的互通共享，百货形成大店带小店的协同发展模式；③技术赋能：建设智慧商业体系，推进CRM 系统、会员体系、WBS 系统及数字化升级；着力打造智慧农批平台。后续关注公司转型变革成效。

　　盈利预测与估值

　　基于疫情影响逐步消除，公司经营逐季改善，我们上调2021/2022年每股盈利预测32%/31%至0.26 元/0.27 元。当前股价对应2021/2022 年18/17 倍市盈率。基于盈利预测上调，但考虑新零售对传统业态的冲击，我们上调目标价5%至6 元，对应2021/2022年23/22 倍市盈率，较当前股价有28%的上行空间。

　　风险

　　行业竞争加剧及转型风险，地产调控收紧。

The results in the first quarter of 2021 are in line with market expectations.

Hefei Department Store announced its results for the first quarter of 2021: revenue was 1.902 billion yuan, up 9.0% over the same period last year; net profit from home was 108 million yuan, up 80.3% from the same period last year, corresponding to 0.14 yuan per share, which was in line with the previous performance forecast range; net profit after deducting non-recurring profit and loss was 81 million yuan, an increase of 110.5% over the same period last year. The company's 1Q21 revenue growth rate has returned to positive, and profitability has improved.

Development trend

1. Income growth resumed, and Q1 achieved the same increase of 9.0%. With the gradual elimination of the impact of the epidemic, the company's management improved quarter by quarter, superimposed low base effect, Q1 year-on-year growth rate returned to positive for the first time since last year. In terms of different formats: 1 the format of department stores and home appliances: we expect the rebound of offline passenger flow and the pick-up of terminal demand to improve the operation of department stores / home appliances; 2 the format of supermarkets: we expect to be affected by a high base. Q1 and the first half of the year pressure; 3 Agricultural products transactions: the company continues to promote the investment and landing of agricultural products market projects, we expect the circulation business of agricultural products to remain sound.

2. Profitability has been improved, and the deduction of non-net interest rate has been revised to 4.3%. The company Q1 achieved a gross profit margin of 31.2%, an increase in 2.3ppt compared with the same period last year. During the period, the expense rate decreased by 0.9 ppt compared with the same period last year, the sales expense rate decreased by 0.9ppt to 6.4%, the management expense rate decreased by 0.6ppt to 13.9%, and the financial expense rate increased by 0.7ppt to 1.2% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in interest charges after the implementation of the new lease standards. Taken together, the Q1 net interest rate rose to 5.7 per cent year-on-year, while the net interest rate after deducting non-profit rose 2.1ppt to 4.3 per cent year-on-year.

3. Continue to pay attention to the effectiveness of business transformation measures. At the present stage, the company promotes the strategic transformation of "double main business plus": 1 main business adjustment: Department stores promote the optimization and upgrading of product structure, consolidate superior categories and introduce new brands, and at the same time use innovative marketing activities to enhance accurate operation and optimize customer group structure; agricultural products business to carry out multi-channel investment, promote the construction of logistics parks and cold storage projects, and enhance the capacity of the supply chain. (2) format coordination: carry out all-format linkage marketing, "agriculture + super" mode integration and development, strengthen the sharing of department stores and electrical appliances customer resources, and department stores form a collaborative development model with large stores and small stores; (3) Technology empowerment: building an intelligent business system, promoting CRM system, membership system, WBS system and digital upgrading; and making great efforts to build a platform for intelligent agricultural batches. Follow up to pay attention to the effectiveness of the transformation of the company.

Profit forecast and valuation

Based on the gradual elimination of the impact of the epidemic and the quarterly improvement of the company's operations, we raised our earnings per share forecast for 2021 / 2022 by 32% to 0.26 yuan / 0.27 yuan. The current share price corresponds to the price-to-earnings ratio of 2021 Universe, 18,000,000 and 17 times earnings in 2022. Based on the upward revision of the earnings forecast, but considering the impact of the new retail on the traditional format, we raise the target price by 5% to 6 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 22 times 2021 / 2022, which has 28% upside space compared with the current stock price.

Risk

The industry competition intensifies and the transformation risk, the real estate regulation tightens.

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合肥百货(000417)：Q1扣非净利润同增110.5% 持续关注业务转型变革成效

Hefei Department Store (000417): Q1 deducts non-net profit with an increase of 110.5%. Continue to pay attention to the effectiveness of business transformation.

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