Event: the company achieved revenue of 29.27 million yuan in the first quarter of 21, an increase of 99.86% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 9.47 million yuan, reversing losses, which was in the upper limit of the previously forecast net profit (6.5 million to 9.5 million yuan).
Core point of view
The business situation has greatly improved, making an excellent start to 21 years. 21Q1 company revenue doubled year-on-year, the profit side to achieve a turnaround, mainly due to the company 20Q1 affected by the epidemic led to a reduction in revenue, the company's production and operation activities were carried out normally during the reporting period. Compared with 19Q1, the company's revenue increased by 0.76% and net profit increased by 50.21%. The main reasons for the outstanding profit performance are: (1) the gross profit margin has increased significantly from 58.25% of 19Q1 to 76.58%; (2) the expense rate has dropped from 51.54% of 19Q1 to 47.63%, of which the financial expense rate has dropped from 2.92% to-10.97%, mainly due to the increase in interest on bank deposits.
The rapid growth of advance receipts and inventory shows that the company has abundant orders and actively produces and prepares goods. At the end of the reporting period, the company's inventory was 85.58 million yuan, an increase of 24.30% over the same period last year, an increase of 22.89% over the beginning of the period. At the end of the reporting period, the company received accounts and contract liabilities of 18.26 million yuan, an increase of 37.09% over the same period last year and 57.96% over the beginning of the period. Combined with several large contracts previously announced, it shows that the company's orders continue to grow, which verifies the magnificent demeanour of the industry. With the smooth progress of production and delivery, the company's performance is expected to be realized steadily quarter by quarter.
At the beginning of the 14th five-year Plan, the three major guidance business sectors showed a high trend of development. The main results are as follows: 1) with the development of hypersonic cruise missile from technical verification to practical application, as well as the demand for multi-mode composite guidance and cost-effective guidance, the permeability of infrared guidance is expected to continue to improve. Over the past 20 years, a number of optical guidance products developed by the company in cooperation with the overall unit have entered the stage of mass production, enjoying the double benefits of stock upgrading and incremental acceleration. 2) military simulation, as the "advanced intelligence contest" of modern warfare, serves the whole life cycle of guided weapons. Since the second half of 20 years, the company has signed project contracts with the military one after another. 3) under the influence of the rapid development of UAV, there is an urgent demand for high-precision and low-cost air defense system. Laser weapons have the characteristics of integration of inspection and fighting, low cost and high efficiency. In 20 years, the company has completed the dynamic tracking and pointing strike test of a certain platform, the key technologies have been verified, and it is expected to achieve multi-platform business expansion in 21 years.
Financial Forecast and Investment suggestion
Maintain the company's 21 -, 22 -, 23-year EPS forecast of 0.89,1.68,2.63 yuan, with reference to the comparable company's 21-year average valuation level and give a 25% valuation premium, corresponding to 53 times valuation, with a target price of 47.17 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk hint
Equipment demand is lower than expected; gross profit margin of optical test fluctuates; valuation premium risk