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科力尔(002892):下游需求强劲 Q1收入超预期

Collier (002892): strong downstream demand Q1 income exceeds expectations

安信證券 ·  Apr 24, 2021 00:00

Event: Collier publishes the 2020 Annual report and the first Quarterly report of 2021. The company realized income of 990 million yuan in 2020, YoY+16.8%; realized performance of 100 million yuan, YoY+11.6%; converted company 2020Q4 realized income of 320 million yuan in a single quarter, YoY+45.4%; realized performance of 20 million yuan, YoY+7.9%. The company's 2021Q1 realized revenue of 290 million yuan in a single quarter, and YoY+73.9%, achieved a performance of 20 million yuan, YoY+32.8%. Compared with 2019Q1, the company's 2021Q1 revenue increased by 59.6%, while its performance fell by 6.0%. We believe that the downstream white electricity and kitchen appliances industry demand is high, the company's revenue growth in the past two quarters exceeded expectations.

Revenue growth has improved significantly in the past two quarters: after the domestic epidemic was controlled, Collier actively adjusted its marketing strategy and focused on expanding the domestic market. The company's 2020Q4 and 2021Q1 revenue increased significantly compared with the same period in 2019, and 2021Q1 revenue still increased significantly compared with the same period in 2019. We believe that the downstream refrigerator and washing machine industry has continued to recover in the past two quarters, the prosperity of small kitchen appliances is high, and continue to benefit from the transfer of overseas orders, Collier downstream customer demand is strong.

According to industry online, total shipments of 2020Q4 refrigerators and washing machines YoY+25.7%/+6.6%,2021 in the first two months of this year, total shipments of refrigerators and washing machines YoY+61.5%/+34.9%. Tmall data show that 2020Q4 kitchen appliances Tmall sales volume YoY+23.9%. In the follow-up, we expect that with the continuous improvement of the prosperity of the white power industry and the full export orders of the superimposed small household appliance company, the company's revenue will maintain a rapid growth rate in recent quarters.

The company's profitability has declined in the past two quarters: Collier's 2020Q4 and 2021Q1 gross margins are year-on-year-9.6pct/-5.6pct, respectively. We judge that the decline in gross profit margin is mainly due to: 1) the prices of raw materials such as copper and silicon steel continue to rise, and the appreciation of the RMB affects the profitability of the company. 2) the company shall implement the new accounting standards and include the cost of performing the contract (transportation fee, customs declaration fee, sales service fee) into the current operating cost. Excluding the impact of changes in accounting standards, Collier 2020Q4 and 2021Q1 gross sales difference are respectively year-on-year-1.8pct/-3.5pct.

Q1 single quarter operating cash flow has declined: Q1 company operating cash flow YoY-98.3%, is mainly due to Q1 metal raw material prices rose sharply, inventory funds increased, Q1 ending inventory balance YoY+67.9%. It is worth noting that the cash received by 2021Q1 in selling goods and providing services increased by 56.2% and 60.2% respectively compared with 2020Q1 and 2019Q1, indicating that the company's sales are improving. The balance of the company's contract debt at the end of Q1 YoY+123.9%, shows that the demand of downstream customers is high.

Investment suggestion: Collier focuses on the research and development and production of motor and intelligent drive and control technology, and is expected to benefit from the trend of home intelligence. In addition to the application of motors in the field of smart home appliances, Collier also actively develops new applications in health care, motion control and other new fields. We expect the company's future performance to maintain rapid growth. It is estimated that the EPS of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.50 yuan respectively, which will be given the investment rating of-A for the first time.

Risk hint: the price of raw materials has risen sharply, and the exchange rate of RMB has appreciated sharply.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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