Maintain and increase holdings. The 2020 revenue of 17.79 billion yuan (- 17%) and the net profit of 810 million yuan (- 21%) were lower than expected. The forecast EPS for 2021-22 will be lowered to 0.59 plus 0.65 yuan (formerly 0.74max 0.79 yuan) with a growth rate of 11.10%, and it is predicted that EPS will grow by 10% in 2023. Considering the callback of risk appetite in the sector, the target price will be lowered to 7 yuan, corresponding to the increase of PE, holdings by 10.8% in 2021-23.
The slowdown in revenue growth is due to the control of PPP construction rhythm and the improvement of net cash flow of operation and investment. 1) Quarterly revenue growth-19%, net profit growth-30%, net profit growth-30%, gross profit 10.8% (+ 0.6pct), net profit 4.7% (- 0.06pct), gross profit 10.8%, net profit 4.7%, net profit 4.7%, gross profit 10.8%, net profit 4.7%, gross profit margin 10.8%, net profit 4.7%, net profit 4.7%. 3) four rates 3.6% (+ 1.1pct), finance 1.0% (+ 0.07pct) due to increase in loan interest; 4) total operating and investment net cash flow of-4.05 billion yuan (2019 total-6.24 billion yuan); 5) asset-liability ratio of 80% (- 0.3pct).
The newly signed order has a growth rate of 24.24 billion yuan, a growth rate of 19% and a planned growth rate of 15%. 1) the newly signed order is 24.24 billion yuan (+ 19%), the quarterly newly signed order is-23130MB, the income guarantee ratio is 2.4%, and the construction business is 19.1 billion yuan (+ 12%), of which 36% is for non-housing construction and 48% is for non-private sector construction. 2) Construction business newly signed 19.1 billion yuan (+ 12%), including 36% for non-housing construction and 48% for non-private sector construction. 3) PPP business revenue / profit decline due to active control of construction pace, newly signed 5.2 billion yuan (+ 56%) to achieve construction income of 4.8 billion yuan, new financing approval of 6.6 billion yuan, rebate of 1.84 billion yuan (+ 34%); 4) 2021 planned order of 28 billion yuan (+ 15%), of which PPP invested 6 billion yuan.
PPP project to improve quality and speed control, expand steel structure / medical / environmental protection industry transformation integrated service providers. 1) promote assembly business, invest 1.5 billion yuan to build prefabricated construction science and technology industrial park, and the company's high-performance fully assembled steel structure housing product system is the first to pass the evaluation of scientific and technological achievements of the Ministry of Housing and Construction; 2) return to light asset operation, strengthen the management and control of receivables and cash flow, expand financing channels, and improve the utilization of funds; 3) strengthen the overall planning of investment progress and total amount in the field of infrastructure to achieve the dynamic balance of investment and income. 4) promote intelligent business such as intelligent construction sites, expand the layout of the medical care industry and environmental protection, etc.; 5) the company's participation in aerospace technology has been listed in Science and Technology Innovation Board for a while, holding 26.52 million shares, with a pre-IPO shareholding ratio of 25%.
Core risks: decline in infrastructure investment, lower-than-expected promotion of prefabricated steel structure, lower-than-expected policies, etc.
