Event: the company's 2020 & 2021Q1 performance report: in 2020, the company achieved operating income of 4.869 billion yuan, year-on-year + 11.84%, and home net profit of 196 million yuan, + 16.44%. The annual performance was in line with expectations. From a quarterly point of view, 2020Q4 achieved operating income of 1.852 billion yuan, year-on-year + 44.16%, and net profit of 84 million yuan, + 25.86% over the same period last year.
2021Q1 achieved operating income of 1.663 billion yuan, year-on-year + 116.13%, return to the mother net profit of 78.5015 million yuan, year-on-year + 135.77% Min 2021Q1 performance exceeded expectations.
Comments: both volume and price have risen, and gross profit margin has reached a 10-year high.
(1) the volume and price of the core brand have risen together, the product structure has been adjusted, and the sales gross profit margin has reached a 10-year high. The company produced 369700 tons of recycled aluminum in 2020, an increase of 8.02% over the same period last year, and sales of 367200 tons, an increase of 6.74% over the same period last year. Among them, the output and sales volume of the core product ADC12 may be 233200 tons, an increase of 11.74 percent over the same period last year, and the average sales price will increase by about 1000 yuan / ton; the sales volume of A380 is expected to be 25600 tons, + 29.95 percent over the same period last year, and the average sales price will increase by 600 yuan / ton; other aluminum alloy ingots will sell about 101200 tons, and the average sales price will increase by 700 yuan / ton. With the increase in the volume and price of the core brand and the adjustment of the company's product structure, the sales gross profit margin reached 8.39% and the net sales profit margin reached 5.37%, both reaching a 10-year high.
(2) the financial expenses improved obviously, and the expenses increased slightly during the period. The company's expenses during 2020 totaled 115 million yuan, including sales expenses of 44 million yuan, + 12.4% year-on-year; management expenses of 42 million yuan, an increase of 12.05% over the same period last year; and financial expenses of 29 million yuan, a decrease of 13.11% over the same period last year.
(3) the asset impairment loss improved, but the credit impairment loss increased obviously, which was a drag on the performance. In 2020, the company's asset impairment loss-credit impairment loss totaled 26 million yuan, an increase of 11 million yuan over the same period last year. Among them, the impairment loss of assets was 0, an improvement of 2.58 million yuan over the same period last year. However, the loss of credit impairment was 26 million yuan, an increase of 14 million yuan over the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in the loss of bad debts of notes receivable.
(4) there is a slight drag on the current period in the construction of Shunbo in Hubei Province. The company has a total of 5 core subsidiaries, all of which are mainly engaged in the production of aluminum alloy ingots except Liangjiang College. As Hubei Shunbo is in the period of construction in 2020, the net profit is-8.2154 million yuan, which is a slight drag on the current profit. However, 2021Q1 Hubei Shunbo has been officially put into production and has entered the stage of trial operation. 2021 is expected to contribute profits to the company.
Outlook for the future: expand the production capacity of recycled aluminum and improve the regional layout of Central and South China. 1 plus recycled aluminum, homeopathic expansion can continue to grow; 2 located in central China and Guangdong Province, filling the capacity gap in central China, while making up for the lack of production capacity in South China.
Performance forecast: with the gradual expansion of the recycled aluminum market and the company's new production capacity will gradually reach production in 2022, the company's performance is expected to be 290 million yuan, 391 million yuan and 406 million yuan in 2021-2023, respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.66,0.89 and 0.92 yuan, respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price (April 22) is 30.88 times, 22.9 times and 22.04 times, respectively. Maintain the company's "prudent overweight" rating.
Risk hint: downstream demand is lower than expected, overseas electrolytic aluminum production is higher than expected, macro risk