I. Overview of events
On April 22, the company released its quarterly report for 2021, with an income of 121 million yuan during the reporting period, + 10.54% compared with the same period last year, and a net profit of-3.9685 million yuan, + 43.93% over the same period last year, deducting non-return net profit of-5.1057 million yuan, + 30.83%.
II. Analysis and judgment
Sales accelerated to double-digit growth, provincial and non-provincial markets performed well. From the sales volume point of view, 21Q1 beer sales volume of 443,000L, year-on-year + 10.87%, slightly faster than 2020, but lower than the national regulation enterprise beer production growth rate of the first quarter (year-on-year + 50.66%). We believe that the low base effect of national regulation enterprises is more obvious. In fact, the company's 21Q1 beer sales increased by 25% compared with 19Q1, while the national regulation enterprise 21Q1 beer production decreased by 3% compared with 19Q1, and the company still outperformed the industry. After the epidemic, the company strengthened the intensive cultivation of the base market, focused on strengthening the construction and maintenance of catering channels, significantly improved its position in the core markets such as Quanzhou, Ningde, Sanming and Jiangxi, and continued to increase its market share. In terms of tonnage, the sales tonnage of 21Q1 beer was 2694 yuan per thousand liters, a slight decrease of 0.81% compared with 20Q1, which is expected to be mainly due to the continuation of the company's more active marketing strategy in the first quarter. From the point of view of the sales region, the income within and outside Fujian Province reached 0.94 million yuan respectively, which was 15.03% higher than that of the same period last year. The steady performance in the province and the acceleration outside the province helped the overall income to achieve double-digit growth.
Operating efficiency has improved significantly, and the logic of profit improvement continues to be verified (1) gross profit margin: 21Q1's gross profit margin is 26.68%, year-on-year + 1.54ppt, which is expected to be mainly due to the scale effect brought about by the increase in production. (2) expense rate: the expense rate of 21Q1 during the period is 19.50%, year-on-year-1.93ppt, sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate is respectively year-on-year + 0.67ppt/0.47ppt/1.03ppt/-4.10ppt, the overall overall decline of the three fees, mainly due to Yanjing parent company to strengthen the assessment of subsidiary profitability, the company's operating efficiency has improved The sharp decrease in the rate of financial expenses is mainly due to the increase in interest income from fixed certificates of deposit. (3) net interest rate: 21Q1's net interest rate is-3.28%, year-on-year + 3.18ppt, year-on-year net profit + 43.93%, year-on-year loss narrowing, reflecting the continuous repair of the company's real profitability.
III. Investment suggestions
It is estimated that the income from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 7.07 million, compared with the same period last year, with an estimated income of RMB 768 million, compared with the same period last year. The year-on-year income is + 151%, 8.6%, 6.6%, and the net profit is 0.40, 0.49, 0.55 million, respectively. The year-on-year net profit is + 39.1%, and the corresponding PE is 66X/53X/48X. The valuation of the company is 54 times higher than that of the beer sector in 2021 (wind consensus expectation, arithmetic average method). The company's quarterly performance confirms our previous judgment that internal cohesion and external market competitiveness are in a continuous improvement channel, and we are optimistic that the company's future operating conditions will continue to improve and maintain the "recommended" rating.
IV. Risk hints
The competition in the beer market in the province has intensified, the promotion of middle and high-end products has been blocked, food safety problems and so on.