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“芯片一哥”诺安蔡嵩松调仓!预判半导体延续缺货潮,放言“黎明前的黑暗,一触即发”

"Brother Chip" Noan Cai Songsong adjusts his position! It is predicted that semiconductors will continue to be out of stock, saying that "the darkness before dawn is imminent."

華爾街見聞 ·  Apr 22, 2021 16:03

In 2020, Nuoan fund Cai Songsong became famous in the first world war, because of its heavy position in chip semiconductor company, the fund net worth curve opened and closed, and the market was highly watched.

In the latest quarterly report of 2021, Cai Songsong's top 10 positions remain unchanged, but the order of heavy stocks has changed slightly.

The Nuoan growth fund he manages still maintains 90% of its equity positions, and "scattered funds" are allocated to financial stocks, water conservancy stocks, and so on.

The latest growth scale of Nuoan is 27.11 billion yuan, which is 5.7 billion yuan lower than that at the end of 2020.

"Core + Satellite" heavy warehouse style

In the first quarter of this year, the A-share market saw the collapse of holding shares and the rapid decline of some stocks, which provided a good buying point for fund managers.

Cai Songsong is no exception, taking advantage of the opportunity to attract money.06ac65a5-6e9e-4b5f-890e-6ed4cf2205a9.pngAs shown in the chart above, North Huachuang was promoted to the number one heavy stock by the end of the first quarter, while it was the second largest by the end of 2020. By comparison, it is found that Cai Songsong increased his position in Northern Huachuang by 860000 shares.

Sanan Optoelectronics also increased its holdings to 15.55 million shares from 11.8 million shares at the end of last year, with a position increase of 3.75 million shares.

It is worth noting that unlike the top 10 positions of other fund managers, which are generally held at 50%, 75%, Cai Songsong takes a "high-pressure heavy position"-the total proportion of the top 10 stocks is as high as 84%, and they are all chip semiconductor companies. The industry even described the growth of Noan as similar to the chip ETF, which has been holding a high concentration of shares.

Dismantling the position structure, it is found that when Cai Songsong ensures that the proportion of the top ten heavy positions in the net asset value of the fund is "constant", he needs to replace the chips.

Cai Songsong carried out position reduction operations on Weier, SMIC, San'an Optoelectronics and Zhuo Shengwei, and moved the capital chips to the two companies mentioned above to increase their holdings.

At the same time, Cai Songsong's holdings of the seventh to tenth largest stocks remain unchanged.

In other words, Cai Songsong's top 10 positions have a "core + satellite", which can be understood as the rapid movement of funds in the first six stocks when there is a better buying point in the market. at the same time, maintain the number of holdings of "waist" companies (the seventh to tenth largest stocks).

For the first time in the history of supply-side shortage

In the quarterly report, Cai Songsong has the following views: looking to the future, the decline of core assets has come to an end, and there is no need to be too pessimistic. Core assets are going through the process of building a bottom by shock, as China's capital market is becoming more and more mature.The high-quality core assets of the high-prosperity track are still the main tone of the future.The expectations of tight liquidity, rising inflation and marginal contraction on the policy side are relatively sufficient, and we focus on the industry itself.

Semiconductors continue to be out of stock, and under the influence of the earthquake in Japan and the snowstorm in Texas in the United States, wafer production capacity is becoming more and more scarce, and out-of-stock prices are becoming more and more intense.The degree of shortage on the supply side of this round is unprecedented in history, the time span of the business cycle is also expected to exceed expectations, the scissors gap between the high prosperity of the industry and stock prices is growing, and the darkness before dawn is imminent.

"scattered funds" layout of financial stocks and water conservancy stocks

In the 2020 annual report, Cai Songsong's top-selling stock was Citic Securities, which surprised the market.28ed6ec7-3ac5-4ce8-9cda-d69d1bbb509e.png

458ae6e2-3d53-488d-8287-21bd5a92234f.png

As shown in the picture above, in the first quarter of this year, Cai Songsong allocated a small amount of funds to financial stocks and water conservancy stocks with a market capitalization of 1.84 million yuan and 1.5 million yuan respectively.

Small-scale redemption

The quarterly report also disclosed the changes in the share of open-end funds.b1b5697f-fc32-413d-8dac-64f993d0a5e7.pngAs shown in the chart above, Noan growth fund shares totaled 17.7 billion at the end of the first quarter, compared with 6.8 per cent of net redemptions at the beginning of the reporting period.

If you look at the total redemption share alone, it accounted for 75% of the total share at first, but there were another 12.9 billion applications in the first quarter.

Although some investors redeem it when it falls, there are still people who boldly copy the bottom.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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