Investment summary
Valuation and investment advice
We believe that as a leading enterprise in the domestic acetic acid industry, the company has a profound accumulation of related technology and has a strong advantage in the industry. After the fund-raising project is put into production, the cost of coal gasification will be further reduced, at the same time, the self-sufficiency rate of key raw materials CO and methanol will be increased, and the production cost of acetic acid will be further reduced. At present, the acetic acid industry is at a high level of prosperity, the supply and demand pattern continues to improve, the new production capacity is less in the next two years, the high boom state is expected to continue, and the overall profit state of the industry will be greatly improved.
We estimate that the company's net return profit from 2021 to 2023 is 2.45 pesque 14.47 / 1.393 billion yuan, which is 4% of the same period as the same period last year. The diluted EPS is 0.25 pesque 1.45 pesque 1.40 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 58.3 pesque 9.9 pesque 10.2 times. Combined with absolute valuation and relative valuation, we think that 13-15 times dynamic PE in 2021 is a reasonable reference valuation, and the target stock price range of the corresponding company is 18.85-21.75 yuan per share. According to the calculation of performance elasticity, when the annual average price of acetic acid increases by 100 yuan / ton, the performance of the company will be thickened by 80 million yuan when the annual production is full. We cover the company for the first time and give it an "overweight" rating.
Core hypothesis and logic
1. The downstream PTA industry has entered a new cycle of production expansion. In the next three years, there is less domestic supply of acetic acid, and the supply and demand pattern of the industry is tight for a long time. Acetic acid is expected to maintain a high boom.
2. The company's investment project will increase the output of syngas and increase the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials, which will help to reduce the comprehensive production cost of acetic acid and consolidate the leading edge of the industry.
The difference between the market and the market
The main results are as follows: 1. The market does not expect the sustainability of the prosperity of the acetic acid industry. The current round of high prosperity in the acetic acid industry is mainly due to the rapid growth of downstream demand as PTA enters the production expansion cycle, while there is less new production capacity in the next two years, and the high prosperity state of acetic acid is expected to continue.
2. After the acetic acid assets are injected into the listed companies, the company is the leading enterprise in the domestic acetic acid industry, but there is not enough research on it in the market. Acetic acid assets were injected into listed companies at the end of 2019 and were affected by the epidemic in 2020. The profitability of the acetic acid industry in the first half of the year was general, but the price difference continued to rise in the second half of the year, so the market did not pay enough attention to the company and the degree of research.
The Catalytic factors of Stock Price change
1. The oil price center continues to rise, which will promote the chemical PPI to continue to rise. The company prepares acetic acid through the coal chemical industry route, and the rising oil price is good for the improvement of the overall profitability of the industry.
2. The continuous expansion of downstream PTA industry has a great impact on the demand growth rate of acetic acid industry. Domestic PTA has entered a new round of capacity expansion, polyester chemical fiber industry has a high degree of prosperity, which will drive the demand for PTA and ultimately enhance the demand for acetic acid.
The main risks of core assumptions or logic
First, the risk of price fluctuation of raw materials. When the raw material price fluctuates sharply, if the product price is not transmitted to the downstream in time, it will have a great impact on the company's profitability.
Second, the risk that the demand of acetic acid industry is lower than expected. At present, the prosperity of the industry is high, if the overall demand is lower than expected, the prosperity of the acetic acid industry will eventually fall back to the normal level.
Third, the risk that the industry will expand production faster than expected. If the existing equipment continues to increase the operating rate, reduce the maintenance time, and speed up the construction progress of the equipment under construction and release the production capacity ahead of time, the prosperity of the acetic acid industry will be greatly affected and will eventually fall back to the normal level.
Fourth, the risk that the profit assumption is too optimistic. Once the prosperity of the industry falls back rapidly, the annual average price of acetic acid products may be lower than our current forecast, resulting in a big gap between our profit forecast and the actual performance.
Investment suggestion
Coverage for the first time, giving "overweight" rating
We believe that as a leading enterprise in the domestic acetic acid industry, the company has a profound accumulation of related technology and has a strong advantage in the industry. After the fund-raising project is put into production, the cost of coal gasification will be further reduced, at the same time, the self-sufficiency rate of key raw materials CO and methanol will be increased, and the production cost of acetic acid will be further reduced. At present, the acetic acid industry is at a high level of prosperity, the supply and demand pattern continues to improve, the new production capacity is less in the next two years, the high boom state is expected to continue, and the overall profit state of the industry will be greatly improved.
We estimate that the company's net return profit from 2021 to 2023 is 2.45 pesque 14.47 / 1.393 billion yuan, which is 4% of the same period as the same period last year. The diluted EPS is 0.25 pesque 1.45 pesque 1.40 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 58.3 pesque 9.9 pesque 10.2 times. Combined with absolute valuation and relative valuation, we think that 13-15 times dynamic PE in 2021 is a reasonable reference valuation, and the target stock price range of the corresponding company is 18.85-21.75 yuan per share. According to the calculation of performance elasticity, every 100 yuan / ton increase in the annual average price of acetic acid will thicken the performance of the company by 80 million yuan. We covered the company for the first time, giving it an "overweight" rating.
Risk hint
First, the risk of price fluctuation of raw materials. The company's main raw materials are coal and ethanol, which account for a large proportion of the company's product cost structure. when the raw material price fluctuates sharply, if the product price is not transmitted downstream in time, it will have a great impact on the company's profitability.
Second, the risk that the demand of acetic acid industry is lower than expected. Under the background of the global economic recovery, the domestic demand for acetic acid has rebounded steadily, and the PTA industry has entered a new cycle of production expansion, which has gradually improved the supply and demand pattern of the domestic acetic acid industry. If the production expansion progress of the PTA industry is lower than expected, the overall demand of the acetic acid industry will be lower than expected, and eventually the prosperity of the acetic acid industry will fall back to the normal level.
Third, the risk that the industry will expand production faster than expected. The domestic acetic acid industry will have less new production capacity in the next two years, but at present, the industry boom is at a historically high level. With the overall profit situation of the industry greatly improved, the new supply of the industry has the risk of exceeding expectations. If the existing equipment continues to increase the operating rate, reduce the maintenance time, and speed up the construction progress of the equipment under construction and release the production capacity ahead of time, the prosperity of the acetic acid industry will be greatly affected and will eventually fall back to the normal level.
Fourth, the risk that the profit assumption is too optimistic. In our profit hypothesis, we are more optimistic about the prosperity of the acetic acid industry, although based on the consideration of the annual average price, we do not adopt the latest price of the industry, but choose a more neutral historical average price. However, once the prosperity of the industry falls back rapidly, the annual average price of acetic acid products may be lower than our current forecast, resulting in a big gap between our profit forecast and the actual performance.
