Events:
In 2020, the company achieved an operating income of 416 million yuan, down 35.55% from the same period last year, and a net profit of 45 million yuan, down 26.32% from the same period last year. The company intends to distribute a cash dividend of 1.00 yuan (including tax) to all shareholders for every 10 shares. In the first quarter of 2021, the company achieved operating income of 156 million yuan, an increase of 179.02% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 20 million yuan, an increase of 455.95% over the same period last year.
Main points of investment:
The performance was lower than expected and 2021Q1 sales increased significantly. In 2020, the company achieved an operating income of 416 million yuan, down 35.55% from the same period last year, and a net profit of 45 million yuan, down 26.32% from the same period last year. The decline in the company's operating performance is mainly due to a large decline in sales in the first quarter, the company's restrictions on the delivery of small and medium-sized customers who are not in time for repayment, and overseas customers who cannot successfully complete the on-site factory inspection. The net cash flow generated by the company's operating activities was 21 million yuan, down 68.02% from the same period last year, mainly due to the decrease in operating income during the reporting period. The company intends to distribute a cash dividend of 1.00 yuan (including tax) to all shareholders for every 10 shares. In the first quarter of 2021, the company achieved operating income of 156 million yuan, an increase of 179.02% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 20 million yuan, an increase of 455.95% over the same period last year. It is mainly due to the fact that the acceleration of the prosperity of the new energy vehicle industry has led to a sharp increase in the company's product sales compared with the same period last year, while the low base in the first quarter of last year.
Gross profit margin increased steadily, R & D layout of a number of power lithium product routes. In 2020, the company's graphite anode materials business achieved operating income of 407 million yuan, down 36.39% from the same period last year, and gross profit margin of 28.77%, an increase of 6.80% over the same period last year.
At the same time, the company promotes the development of new products around the national industrial policy and the development direction of the graphite industry. Through continuous R & D investment, the company has successively developed new carbon material products such as silicon-carbon negative electrode, titanium dioxide negative electrode and graphene. Explore a variety of high-performance, low-cost power lithium technology routes, provide solutions for negative electrode materials, and make a good layout and technical reserve for the development of various product routes of power lithium electricity in the future.
We will speed up the construction of fund-raising projects and build an integrated processing layout for the whole process of graphite anode materials. In 2020, the company raised 324 million yuan through an initial public offering of shares to integrate the production of high-end graphite anode materials. By the end of 2020, the company plans to produce 60,000 tons of graphite anode materials, with an actual effective production capacity of 25500 tons. At present, the investment construction of fund-raising projects is being carried out in an orderly manner. Through the construction of standardized production plants, the introduction of advanced machinery and equipment and high-quality production personnel, to create an integrated processing and manufacturing base for the whole process of high-end graphite anode materials with a high level of automation, reasonable spatial structure, clean and environmental protection, to form an annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of high-end graphite anode materials to meet the needs of the company's future business development.
Downgrade profit forecast and maintain "buy" rating: the company is an excellent supplier of negative materials in China and has successfully cut into the supply chain of first-line battery manufacturers. Considering the possibility of the epidemic affecting overseas business expansion, we carefully reduce the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the 21-22 year net profit will be 1.34 yuan and 239 million yuan respectively (before the reduction is 1.52 yuan and 260 million yuan respectively). The 23-year profit forecast shows that the 23-year net profit will be 316 million yuan, corresponding to 1.34,2.39,3.16 yuan per share in 21-23 years. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 33 times, 19 times and 14 times respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating, taking into account the company's long-term benefits from accelerated global electrification.
Risk tips: global sales of new energy vehicles are not up to expectations; new capacity is not up to expectations; risk of new technology and new product development.