Event: the company released the annual report for 2020, with annual revenue of 2.303 billion yuan, year-on-year + 3.63%, net profit of 300 million yuan, + 21.09%, deduction of non-net profit of 266 million yuan, + 25.81% exchange EPS 1.25 yuan per share, and proposed dividend of 1 yuan per share (including tax).
Core ideas:
1. The profit target for the whole year has been exceeded, continuing the steady development trend: Q4 company achieved 439 million yuan in revenue, + 1.31% year-on-year, and returned to its mother net profit of 7.03 million yuan, reversing losses over the same period last year. The higher-than-expected profit is mainly due to the late Mid-Autumn Festival. Part of the income caused by the postponement of the mooncake pick-up deadline will be included in Q4. After the epidemic, the company through product promotion, product upgrading, the development of group purchase business and increase online investment and other measures to catch up with the annual target. Although the annual revenue is slightly lower than the target, the target of 10% at the profit end has been exceeded, and the planning has maintained a steady growth of 8-10% in the 21st year.
2. The cake category is accelerated, and the Chinese and western cakes are robust: according to the products, Q4 cake, Chinese and western cakes (including moon cakes), fruits and other categories are + 50.2%, + 19.3%,-23.5% and-14.9% respectively compared with the same period last year. Among them, the cake category is + 26.3% year-on-year and accelerates quarter by quarter, mainly due to: 1) increasing promotion through Little Red Book, live broadcast and other new media; 2) upgrading dream cake to meet the consumer needs of more festivals and special situations; 3) launching and upgrading small mousse cakes to provide more choices for exquisite afternoon tea consumption scenarios; 4) 19-year price increase of cake products, some of the effects have been delayed. In addition, Chinese and Western pastries (including moon cakes) were + 3.24% year on year throughout the year. The company launched pastry products to meet some non-moon cake group buying needs during the Mid-Autumn Festival, hoping to gradually weaken the concentrated sales of Dragon Boat Festival and Mid-Autumn Festival in the future and stabilize seasonal fluctuations. On the one hand, the category maintains the sales of traditional star products such as "snow moon cakes", on the other hand, it focuses on developing year-round consumable categories to keep the brand younger.
3. The effect of online transformation is remarkable, and the gross profit margin continues to rise: at the beginning of the year, the company experienced an epidemic and converted offline investment to online according to the situation. For the whole year, the company's offline and online revenues were-1.35% and + 46.47%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The proportion of online income increased from 21.5% in 19 years to 28.9% in 20 years, and reached 40% in 21 years, and reached 70% in the future.
During the year, the company opened 29 net stores, with a total of 677 stores, and is expected to maintain about 30 net store opening plans in 21 years. The 20-year gross profit margin / net profit margin of the company is respectively + 2.04pct/+1.88pct to 65.6% to 13.03% compared with the same period last year, on the one hand, due to the effect of product price increases, and on the other hand, due to the increase in the proportion of online sales, reducing the loss of offline store restocking. After the Mid-Autumn Festival pick-up peak season, Q4 contract debt is 112 million yuan lower than Q3 normal to 711 million yuan.
4. Profit forecast and valuation: due to obvious fluctuations in quarterly performance, less than the company, and low market attention, the company has achieved steady growth after 16 years of listing, such as epidemic situation and online transformation. the cash flow is good and maintains a high dividend ratio, and the dividend payout rate for 18-20 years is as high as 65.6%, 116.2% and 80%, respectively.
We estimate that the company's EPS for 21-23 years will be RMB 1.38, respectively, and the corresponding valuation will be multiple of 14-12-11, giving it a "recommended" rating.
5, risk tips: 1) food safety problems; 2) the opening of stores is not up to expectations, and the increase in the efficiency of individual stores is not obvious; 3) the competition intensifies and the increase of card discount leads to an increase in the cost rate; 4) the seasonal fluctuation of card voucher gift boxes is still relatively intense, resulting in large fluctuations in market expectations in a short time; 5) online growth slows down.
