Metro Design announced its quarterly report for 2021: the company's revenue during the reporting period was 513 million yuan, + 29.10% compared with the same period last year, and its net profit was 101 million, + 25.75% compared with the same period last year.
Comments:
The revenue performance increased synchronously, and the overall performance was in line with expectations: during the reporting period, the company achieved 513 million in revenue, + 29.10% in the same period last year; 101 million in net profit, + 25.75% in the same period last year; and 100 million yuan in non-net profit, + 25.69% in the same period last year, and the overall performance growth was in line with expectations. In terms of orders, the company won the bid with a total amount of 3.88 billion yuan in 2020, signed contracts of 10.123 billion yuan, and sufficient order reserves. The rail transit design industry has high barriers, the market is more concentrated, the industry CR10 is over 90%, and the leading enterprises have a solid market position. The company is the absolute leader of subway design in Guangdong Province. we estimate that from 2016 to 2019, the market share of the company in Guangdong Province is 45.20%. According to the latest financial budget report, the company's 2021 target revenue is 2.16 billion, year-on-year + 15.49%, total profit 383 million, year-on-year + 14.92%.
Gross margin increases and rates fall, and credit impairment affects profits: the company's 2021Q1 gross margin is 40.4%, year-on-year + 2.08pct. Period rate 14.06%, year-on-year-1.31pct, itemized, management rate, R & D rate, sales rate year-on-year-3.05pct, + 0.94pct,-0.13pct, respectively, management rate decreased significantly, R & D investment continued to increase, financial rate year-on-year + 0.93pct to-0.26%, still negative, mainly due to the decline in interest income.
The net profit rate is 20.1%,-0.38pct compared with the same period last year. Although the company's gross profit margin and expense side have improved, the net profit rate still declined slightly. We believe that it is mainly due to the impact of bad debt provision, and the credit impairment loss in the current period has increased by nearly 10 million compared with the same period last year. Net operating cash flow-397 million yuan, year-on-year-170 million yuan, we think it is mainly due to the increase in performance pay in the previous year, "cash paid to employees and employees" + 36.7% to 474 million year-on-year. The cash-to-cash ratio is 60.62%, year-on-year-17.57pct. The asset-liability ratio is 52.22%, year-on-year + 52.22pct.
Technology and R & D build core barriers, dividend policy positive and steady: 1) strong qualification, based on innovation R & D: the company has comprehensive engineering design Class A qualification, R & D investment in 2020 is + 21% to 102 million yuan compared with the same period last year, adhere to innovation-driven 2) based on Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, continue to expand business: make use of the convenience of rail transit development in Dawan area to continuously enrich business diversity and expand business quality and quality; 3) with the help of listed capital platform, build a strategic development model of "design + digital technology": speed up the digital transformation of enterprises, cultivate engineering digital technology based on BIM, incubate new products and occupy new markets. 4) the dividend policy is positive and steady. In 2020, the company paid a cash dividend of 6.6 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, with a total cash dividend of 264 million, with a dividend ratio of 92% and an average dividend ratio of 50% in two years (no dividend in 2019).
Profit forecast and rating: we expect the EPS of the company from 2021 to 2023 to be 0.82,0.96 and 1.15 yuan per share respectively, and the corresponding PE to be 28x, 24x and 20x respectively. The subway design industry is highly concentrated, the professional barriers are strong, the company's business ability is industry-leading, the regional infrastructure investment is strong, the performance growth is high, and the financial data performance is excellent, and the dividend rate is high. raise the estimated value of 2021 to 30x (original value 25x), the target price is 24.6 yuan per share, and maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk hints: regional infrastructure investment is not as strong as expected, macroeconomic growth is not as expected, and the epidemic spread beyond expectations.