The readings of this report are as follows:
Downstream to the head of customized enterprises-based customer structure to bring a strong demand recovery, aldehyde-free plate to represent the rapid growth of high-end products to enhance the profitability of the company.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. In 2020, revenue of 1.74 billion yuan decreased by 10.42%, while net profit of 172 million yuan returned to the mother increased by 1.42%, which was in line with expectations. It is estimated that the EPS of the company in 2021-2023 will be 0.18 yuan, 0.22 yuan, and the target price will be 4.21 yuan, corresponding to the 15.59 times of PE in 2021-2023, which will maintain the "over-holding" rating.
The boom downstream may continue. Q4 company's revenue of about 511 million yuan is basically flat compared with the same period last year, and the comparison between particleboard and fibreboard in the company's product structure is balanced, and the downstream customers are mainly head customized furniture enterprises. therefore, in the environment of the recovery of the leading household industry, the sales end of the company recovers quickly, and the landscape demeanor still has high certainty under the action of a low base in 2020.
Product structure will be the main contribution to performance growth. The parent net profit of Q4 company is about 65 million yuan, an increase of about 75%. On the one hand, it comes from the rising structure of particleboard products in the industry, and on the other hand, it also benefits from the rapid volume of high-end products dominated by formaldehyde-free panels, which may grow by as much as 85% for the whole year, bringing gross profit margin to rise with 2.65pct. The change in product structure will continue to be the main driving force for the company's growth before the contribution of new capacity in 2021.
Capacity expansion and industrial chain layout support further growth. The company recently announced strategic planning, production capacity will double within 5 years, showing a relatively clear direction of development. The new production capacity of the company's 500,000 square port base is expected to advance rapidly in 2021 and form an effective contribution in 2022. New Zealand may gradually try to promote and take the lead in timber trade and gradually accumulate resource advantages. the dynamic foundation for the company's growth.
Risk Tip: raw material prices fluctuate and new projects fall short of expectations.