I. Overview of events
On April 19, the company released the 2020 Annual report and the first Quarterly report of 2021, with revenue of 1.225 billion yuan in 2020, + 16.94% year-on-year, and net profit of 101 million yuan, + 12.01% compared with the same period last year. The basic EPS is 1.08 yuan. 21Q1 realized revenue of 304 million yuan, + 8.62% year-on-year, and net profit of 12 million yuan,-47.37% compared with the same period last year. It is proposed to pay a cash dividend of 2.00 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
II. Analysis and judgment
With the rapid growth of fresh bean products under the background of the epidemic, the company achieved 1.225 billion yuan in revenue in 2020, + 16.94% year-on-year, equivalent to 334 million yuan in 20Q4, + 12.06% in 2020. In the context of the epidemic, the company as a "vegetable basket" enterprises to ensure stable supply and price, as a whole to achieve rapid growth. From a product point of view, the income of fresh bean products / plant protein beverages / leisure bean products reached RMB 1680.72 million respectively, which was + 29.0%, 15.5% and 3.0% respectively compared with the same period last year. Fresh bean products as the company's main products, the performance of fresh bean products has achieved rapid growth in the case of the increase in epidemic scenes at home; plant protein drinks are limited by the upgrading of consumption, the increase of substitutes, and the opening of breakfast stores has been hindered under the epidemic, and sales have declined; leisure bean products are products that the company is actively cultivating and are expected to expand in the future with the help of the company to improve supply chain advantages and a wide range of market channels. In terms of different channels, the revenue of the distribution / direct sales / merchant super model reached RMB 7.73 million respectively, which was + 9.4% + 20.2% "37.0%" respectively compared with the same period last year. The distribution model has achieved steady growth, and the Shang Chao model has achieved rapid growth, which verifies the expansion potential of the company in the fresh mainstream C-end channel; at the same time, the company focuses on developing catering and canteen customers to open B-end incremental space. From a sub-regional point of view, Zhejiang / Jiangsu / Shanghai / other regions have achieved an income of RMB 0.04 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.2%, 29.1%, 23.9%, 56.1%, respectively. While insisting on the solid advantages of Jiangsu and Zhejiang households, the company is also actively laying out markets outside East China to achieve a nationalized layout.
21Q1 achieved 304 million yuan in revenue, + 8.62% year-on-year. The rapid growth of the company's performance in the first quarter is mainly due to:
(1) strong demand, benefiting from the "on-the-spot Spring Festival" policy at the beginning of the year, the company's fresh bean products sell well at the end of the market; (2) when the price of the product is raised, 21Q1 raises the price of some products, covering the price increase of some raw materials and contributing to the increase in the price of income.
Rising costs squeeze profit margins, raising prices to transfer cost pressure
Gross profit margin: the gross profit margin of the company in 2020 is 33.25%, year-on-year-6.28pptbot 21Q1 gross profit margin 28.95%, year-on-year-8.97ppt, gross profit margin dropped sharply mainly due to changes in accounting standards, freight adjustment to the cost side listed, followed by the rise in raw materials to a certain extent squeezed the gross profit space, the company has transferred the cost pressure by raising prices. Net interest rate: in 2020, the company achieved a net profit of 101 million yuan, + 12.01% compared with the same period last year, and the annual net interest rate was 8.24%, year-on-year-0.36ppt. 21Q1 achieved a net profit of 12 million yuan,-47.37% compared with the same period last year, and the net interest rate was 4.06% and-4.32 ppt compared with the same period last year. The decline in profit in the first quarter was mainly due to the rise in raw material prices. Under the solid brand strength, the company has transferred part of the cost pressure downstream through price increases.
Expense rate: during 2020, the expense rate is 21.97%, year-on-year-6.37ppt, of which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate is 15.24%, 4.65%, 0.80%, 1.27%, respectively, compared with the same period last year-5.09ppt/-0.82ppt/+0.32ppt/-0.79ppt. The decline in sales expense rate is mainly due to the transfer of freight to cost items. The expense rate during 21Q1 is 22.95%, year-on-year-2.74ppt, of which the sales expense rate is 15.70%, year-on-year-2.53ppt.
Capacity investment superimposed and price increases contribute to short-term increments, channel expansion and remote expansion open long-term space for 2021, we expect that the company's revenue is still expected to continue double-digit growth, mainly due to: (1) capacity release:
The company's IPO investment project includes a production capacity of 80,000 tons of fresh bean products. By the end of 2020, about 60% of the construction has been completed through self-raised funds, and some of the production capacity is expected to be successfully put into production from 2021. At the same time, the Yangzhou plant relocation project will also invest 330 million yuan in new capacity. (2) Product price increase: the domestic soybean price rose significantly in 2020, and the company hedged the cost pressure by raising the price directly in January this year, providing part of the increment for the revenue side of the year. In addition, we judge that there is a good chance that soybean prices will continue to rise in 2021, and we do not rule out the possibility that the company will still raise prices in 21H2. (3) Channel expansion:
On the basis of consolidating the market advantages of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, the company will reach in-depth cooperation with the Central China Regional fresh platform, and at the same time set up a catering department to dock with Haidilao and other large chain catering companies to provide customized bean products services. open up a broad B-end market space.
In the long run, we believe that in the case of more stringent production technology and environmental protection requirements of the industry, the clearing pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises in the industry will gradually increase, which will provide benefits for the continuous expansion of large-scale enterprises. The company will realize pan-regionalization and even nationalization from two dimensions: (1) M & A: the Yangzhou Industrial Bean products Factory acquired in 2008 has achieved nearly 100 million yuan in revenue through the reform of the company's management system and the improvement of production line efficiency. in the future, it is expected to continue to copy the "Yangzhou experience" and realize more regional M & An expansion. (2) Building a factory in different places: the company built the Anji factory in 2010 and has become the company's most important production base. It is expected that the "Anji model" will be promoted in weak areas outside East China in the future to achieve remote expansion.
III. Investment suggestions
It is estimated that in 2021-2023, the company will achieve an income of 13.48 million yuan, 15.70 million yuan, 14.8%, 1.25 million yuan, 19.3%, 16.8%, 1.00%, 16.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14.8%, 14. The company's valuation is slightly higher than the comparable company's average 2021 valuation of 32 times (Wind consensus expectations, arithmetic average method), taking into account the company's future production capacity and channel expansion will lead to performance growth, maintain the "recommended" rating.
IV. Risk hints
Rapidly rising costs, lower-than-expected capacity release, food safety risks, and so on.
