Conclusion: the revenue and net profit of the company in 2020 are 30.2 and 256 million, an increase of 14.8% and 67.9%, respectively. The forecast 21Q1 net profit is 0.48-60 million, an increase of 60-100%, which is in line with expectations. Considering the postponement of COD, the EPS in 2021-22 will be reduced to 0.42 yuan and 0.58 yuan, and the EPS in 2023 will be increased by 0.73 yuan. Based on the comparable valuation, 50 times PE will be given in 2021, and the target price will be lowered to 21 yuan to increase holdings.
The domestic share has increased steadily, the overseas demand has resumed, and the 21Q1 compressor has grown rapidly. In 2020, screw machine revenue was 2.23 billion, an increase of 9.6%, of which domestic growth exceeded 15%, market share increased steadily, while overseas affected by the epidemic declined, Austrian LMF revenue of 340 million (- 27.8%). The domestic manufacturing expenditure of 21Q1 has rebounded sharply, and the operation of KCF in the United States has also improved significantly. According to research, compressor revenue has increased by nearly 60% compared with the same period last year and nearly 30% higher than the high point of 18Q1.
Indonesia's SMGP short-term project has been postponed and will be more robust after stress tests. As a result of the safety accident, SMGP lost US $3 million in electricity charges, plus other losses, and 21Q1 incurred a loss. On April 14, SMGP restarted the construction of subsequent power stations, which was 1-2 months later than the previous schedule. The accident opened to adjust the management framework, the addition of a chief safety officer to reduce the risk of future accidents, and the Indonesian authorities' speed of handling the accident also proved that geothermal power generation has a good policy environment in Indonesia.
The construction of the power plant may be delayed, and carbon-neutral geothermal power generation is rising day by day. The 2021 COD project includes SMGP II 45MW (21Q2, electricity price 8.1 cents), SGI Phase I 5MW (21Q2, electricity price 12.5 cents), and Wabuska Phase I 12.5MW (21Q2, electricity price 7.025 cents). The expected power generation scale by the end of the year is about 115MW (new 65MW), but it is 3-6 months later than previously expected, and the annual electricity sales revenue is expected to be about 45 million US dollars (+ 55%).
Risk hint: new project COD schedule is delayed
