2021Q1 performance forecast exceeded expectations, fully benefiting from the flexibility of CCL price increase, maintaining the "buy" rating company issued the 2020 results KuaiBao and 2021Q1 performance forecast, 2020 operating income reached 3.61 billion yuan, YoY+8.6%, home net profit of 180 million yuan, YoY+15.4%, of which 2020Q4 single-quarter operating income of 1.24 billion yuan, home net profit of 90 million yuan, at the same time the company released 2021Q1 performance KuaiBao The quarterly profit reached 232 million yuan and 279 million yuan, and the YoY+580~720%, increased by 156% to 210% month-on-month.
Considering that the leading manufacturers of CCL are optimistic about the demand and price outlook for the whole year, and that the price cycle of the current round of CCL is longer than that in 2016-2017, we lower our profit forecast for 2021-2022 and raise our profit forecast for 2020-2022 to 1.51 pound 2.06 billion yuan (the previous value is 2.3 pound 1.19 billion and 1.16 billion yuan, and the previous value is 0.252.07), EPS 2.83 yuan (the previous value is 0.32 pound 1.63 pound 1.59 yuan). The current share price is 4.6 times PE 6.3, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Demand and raw material prices promote 2021Q2 price increase accelerated, copper clad laminate price outlook optimistic throughout the year since 2020Q3, overseas orders continue to inflow, downstream PC, home appliances, industrial control, car demand warms up, driving PCB manufacturers order visibility to more than 3 months, at a historically high level of prosperity, high-power, high current and other copper clad laminate products due to hot-pressing single batch output less than thin laminate, aggravating the shortage of copper clad laminate supply. Considering that the economic recovery after the epidemic is superimposed on the upward cycle of 5G innovation-driven semiconductors, the current price rise cycle of CCL will exceed five consecutive quarters of price increases in 2016-2017. Leading manufacturers Shengyi technology, Jiantao laminate for the whole year demand and price outlook optimistic, we think that 2021Q2 manufacturers will speed up the pace of FR-4 price increases, considering copper foil, glass fiber, resin three major raw material prices rise to push the cost basis higher than the last round, this round of FR-4 (1.5 mm 18 um) as the representative of the copper clad laminate price high point is expected to exceed 2017.
The company's small customer-based model brings strong bargaining power, and its profit performance surpasses the business model of peer companies based on small customers, and has the bargaining power to surpass its peers in the copper clad laminate price increase cycle. the concentration of the top five customers before 2019 is only 4.8%. Lower than comparable companies, with the acceleration of CCL price increases, gross profit margin and net profit margin rose in a single quarter. The company promotes profitability through vertical integration of upstream fiberglass materials.
Risk tips: the accelerated rise in raw material costs leads to a decline in the company's gross profit margin; the improvement of the company's product structure is not as expected; the decline in PCB prosperity leads to a decline in the price of copper clad laminates; and competition in the copper clad laminate industry intensifies.
