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全球芯片短缺到什么时候?至少延续到明年

When will there be a global chip shortage? At least it continues until next year

華爾街見聞 ·  Apr 15, 2021 21:58

Source: Wall Street

At present, the problem of "lack of core" in various industries around the world is becoming more and more serious, which has not been alleviated at all.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd CEO Wei Zhijia said on a conference call on April 15 that the shortage of some "key semiconductors" will last until at least the end of this year, or even 2022.

What it calls "key semiconductors" may be chips needed by iPhone, smart TVs and car manufacturers.

At the end of last year, the automobile industry and the game console industry were short of production capacity due to a shortage of chips. At the beginning of this year, even if the prices of processors, graphics cards and memory in the PC market rose wildly, they still could not get the goods.

In addition, many executives of mobile phone manufacturers have complained through social platforms, "complaining" that the supply of chips this year is not ideal.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, the world's largest contract chip manufacturer, has decided to raise its spending and revenue growth targets for this year, mainly because carmakers and PC suppliers are competing for chips.

With regard to the chip shortage that has plagued the global industry, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd CEO Wei Zhijia said on a conference call that the company's customers are experiencing capacity shortages across the industry, mainly caused by long-term demand growth and short-term supply chain imbalances.

Wei Zhe Jia said:

We bought land and equipment and started the construction of new facilities. We are recruiting thousands of employees and expanding our production capacity in multiple locations.

Intel Corp is more pessimistic about the prospect of chip shortages. Pat Gelsinger, the company's chief executive, said on Wednesday that the chip shortage would take "several years" to ease.

It is worth mentioning that Qualcomm Inc, the chip giant in the field of Android phones, has previously been pointed out that the delivery time of materials in the whole department has been extended to more than 30 weeks, and the delivery cycle of CSR Bluetooth chips has reached more than 33 weeks.

It is reported that in addition to being affected by the epidemic, the main reasons for the shortage include the overall rebound in consumer demand, the serious situation of temporary orders from customers, and the expansion of production capacity by smartphone manufacturers.

Expert: the chip crisis is difficult to end within this year.

Ted Mortonson, a technology strategist at Baya, said recently that the global chip crisis will not end within this year.

Mortonson believes that the growing demand in the cloud, the promotion of 5G, telecom companies and electric car manufacturers are all one of the main reasons for the chip shortage. Mortonson also pointed out that new capacity needs to be transferred online to meet demand.

Mortonson stressed that semiconductor companies have recently invested in expanding production capacity, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd plans to invest US $100 billion in the next three years. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd said the investment will increase the company's production capacity and promote the manufacture and research and development of high-end semiconductor technology.

However, Mortonson said that although companies have recently proposed new production plans, most of the production capacity will not be achieved by the end of the year. Mortonson also pointed out that most semiconductor companies have begun to adopt the "order irrevocable" mechanism. In some cases, the delivery time ranges from 15 to 50 weeks.

Mark Fields, a former Ford CEO and senior adviser to Texas Pacific Capital Group, recently said that automakers had produced 3 million fewer cars affected by the epidemic in 2020, while the impact of chip shortages could be equally fatal.

He said:

Many forecasts for the first quarter seem to suggest that automakers produced 700000 cars less, and a simple calculation shows that these production losses are almost the same as those caused by last year's epidemic.

Fields believes that carmakers are trying to maximize production value by selling cars with the highest margins, but given the scope of the supply crunch, this is tantamount to "tearing down the east wall to make up for the west wall".

Fields added that the situation for automakers will improve in the second half of 2021, but the entire industry will not fully recover until 2022.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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