The company expects operating income of 299 million yuan in the first quarter of 2021, an increase of 65.17% in the same period. The net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies in the first quarter is expected to be 1600-20 million yuan, turning losses into profits. The increase in revenue and profit mainly comes from the increase of the company's production capacity and the adjustment of product prices. With the commissioning of the company's propylene oxide project, the company is expected to maintain its low-cost advantage and further increase profits, with huge room for performance growth. The company has good prospects for future development and maintains a "buy" rating.
The rise in volume and price has led to a turnaround in the company's performance. Yida shares issued a forecast for the first quarter of 2021. The company expects operating income of 299 million yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 65.17% over the same period last year. The net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies in the first quarter is expected to be 16 million yuan to 20 million yuan, turning losses into profits over the same period last year. Benefiting from the gradual increase in new production capacity of Jilin Yida and the adjustment of the company's product prices, the company's sales revenue and sales volume increased significantly in the first quarter of 2021, and revenue and profits increased rapidly.
Alcohol ether, alcohol ether ester downstream prospects, the company's advantages to help consolidate the leading position. The company is a leading enterprise of alcohol ether and alcohol ether ester organic chemical products in China, with an existing production capacity of 230000 tons. Alcohol ether and its alcohol ether esters are respectively produced by continuous tubular process and direct esterification, with a leading technical level in the industry. Alcohol ethers and alcohol ethers and esters can be used in coatings, electronic chemicals, automobiles, inks, daily chemicals and other fields, the demand is growing steadily.
At present, the demand for electronic chemicals is in the ascendant, the demand for electronic-grade alcohol ethers and esters is broad, the company's electronic-grade products have been put into production, and semiconductor-level products are being developed, which will drive the company's performance growth and help the company maintain a leading position.
The propylene oxide (PO) project is about to be put into production and is expected to lead to sustained growth. The company's fund-raising project, a 150,000 ton / year HPPO legal PO project with independent intellectual property rights, is currently going through various formalities for trial production and will soon be put into production. After the project reaches production, it is expected to use 50,000 tons for its own use and export about 100000 tons.
Affected by the soaring price of ethylene oxide, the company's self-supplied ethylene oxide will bring considerable ethylene oxide sales revenue and greatly reduce the cost of alcohol ethers and esters. The propylene oxide project is expected to be the biggest driver of the company's performance growth.
Take the lead in the layout of HPPO route, the technical level is recognized by the industry. At present, the PO production capacity of the domestic chlorohydrin method accounts for more than 50%, while the HPPO method has the advantages of short process, high yield and green environmental protection compared with the traditional chlorohydrin method. In recent years, the supply-side structural reform and the promotion of environmental protection work have put forward new requirements for the whole chemical industry to improve quality and efficiency, transformation and upgrading and healthy development. The simple, efficient and less polluting HPPO method is favored, and the independent core intellectual property HPPO technology formed by the company's R & D and accumulation for many years is in a leading position in the industry and recognized by the industry. The company has signed a 103 million yuan technology transfer contract with Ruiheng New Materials, a subsidiary of Yangnong Group, and is expected to further extend its technical services and give full play to the company's technical advantages such as TS-1 catalysts.
Risk factors: propylene oxide project production schedule is not as expected; propylene oxide price fluctuates sharply; downstream demand is not as expected; production safety accidents occur.
Investment advice: with the commissioning of the company's propylene oxide project, the company is expected to maintain its low-cost advantage and further increase profits, with huge room for performance growth. According to the 2020 performance forecast, we reduced the company's 2020 net profit forecast to-3.9 million yuan, maintaining the 2021-2022 net profit forecast of 384 million and 485 million, corresponding to the 2021-2022 EPS forecast of 4.45 million 5.61 yuan. Give the company a valuation of 14 times PE in 2021, maintain the target price of 67 yuan, and maintain the "buy" rating.