Report guide
Broad Housing released operating data for the first quarter of 2021. In terms of PC component manufacturing business, the total amount of new contracts signed by 21Q1 was 1.162 billion yuan, an increase of + 273.3% over the same period last year; as of the end of 21Q1, the amount of orders-on-hand was 5.998 billion yuan, an increase of + 54.8% over the same period last year. In terms of module integrated construction business, as of March 31, 2021, the newly signed agency cooperation agreement corresponds to the sales amount of 750 million yuan.
Main points of investment
B-end business: 21Q1 newly signed + 273.3%, sector revenue is expected to increase + 106.72% newly signed orders: 21Q1 newly signed PC components contract value of 1.162 billion yuan, + 273.3% higher than 20Q1's newly signed 311 million yuan year-on-year increase, close to 30% of the total value of 4.091 billion yuan of newly signed manufacturing contracts for the whole year of 2020. Orders on hand: at the end of 21Q1, the amount of outstanding orders for PC component manufacturing business was 5.998 billion yuan, which was + 54.8% higher than that of 3.874 billion yuan at the end of 20Q1 compared with the same period last year. Combined with the growth rate of newly signed and on-hand order data, the high revenue growth period of the main business in 2021 is expected. Estimated revenue: combined with the data of newly signed and existing orders, we estimate that the contract value of 21Q1 manufacturing business is about 360 million yuan. assuming all the carryover is confirmed as current revenue, compared with 20Q1 + 106.72% year-on-year, sector revenue is expected to double.
C-end business: 21Q1 new product sale, Broad Modulo newly signed 750 million yuan sales cooperation agreement the company released on March 28 modular construction new products: Broad Modulo (BOX Modul series), for accommodation, culture and travel market. Compared with traditional buildings, it has the following advantages: 1) better performance: made of silicon-based composites with high strength, good heat preservation and moisture-proof performance; 2) faster construction: all four products can be "started on the same day and checked in on the same day". The fastest construction takes only 1 hour; 3) the price is more friendly to the people: the sample price of 32 square meters is 99000 yuan. 4) movable: modular buildings can be disassembled and moved repeatedly to achieve secondary utilization and reduce investment risk.
Yuanda model products are in line with the policy of green building and rural revitalization, which provides a new choice for the market construction of Minshu Culture and Culture Brigade.
As of March 31, 2021, the newly signed agency cooperation agreement for modular construction business corresponds to a sales amount of 750 million yuan, which is expected to become a new growth pole of the company after the United States House.
B-end C-end two-wheel drive, 21-year performance is expected to pick up faster than expected (1) B-side business: under the background of the high increase in the amount of hand-held contracts, 21Q1 is expected to arrive during the peak season for large customer collection orders to be superimposed and delivered one after another, and the order conversion rate is expected to further increase; (2) C-side business:
The construction of a large and beautiful mansion exhibition center in many places has promoted the sales of beautiful houses in an all-round way, and the cooperation agreement on the sale of model products has been signed well, which is expected to contribute to the increase in profits outside the main business. (3) the company issued a notice of the shareholders' general meeting on March 1, 2021. The notice proposes a revenue budget target of 4.92 billion yuan for 2021, which is expected to increase by 88.22% over the revenue of 2.614 billion yuan in 2020, and the certainty of performance recovery is further enhanced.
Profit forecast and valuation
We forecast that the net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be 624 million yuan, 812 million yuan and 1.065 billion yuan. The corresponding PE was 13.0,10.0,7.6 times, respectively. Under the background of the continuous increase of assembly policy and the continuous improvement of the prosperity of the industry, the company focuses on the development of the main industry of PC component manufacturing, with large performance space and flexibility in the past 21 years. The current pessimistic expectations are fully released, undervalued, optimistic about the certainty of the growth of the main business, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the improvement rate of prefabricated permeability is not as fast as expected; the growth rate of real estate investment is not as fast as expected.