It is another year when the "double points" is announced, some people are happy and others are sad.

The so-called "double integral", that is, the average fuel consumption integral + new energy vehicle integral, the integral is positive and negative. If a car company produces negative points for fuel consumption or new energy without compensation, it will be punished by suspending the declaration of high fuel consumption products or even suspending the production of high fuel consumption products.

According to the average fuel consumption of passenger car enterprises and the scores of new energy vehicles announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently, in 2020, domestic car companies generated positive new energy points of about 4.2 million, negative new energy points of about 920 million, fuel consumption of about 3.91 million, and fuel consumption of about 10.57 million points. Combined with the rule that the positive integral of new energy can be offset against the negative integral of fuel consumption, the "double integral" negative score gap of the automobile market in 2020 is about 3.38 million points.

According to the "measures for parallel Management of average fuel consumption of passenger car Enterprises and New Energy vehicle credits" (hereinafter referred to as the "double points" policy), if car companies are unable to fill the "double points" negative gap by themselves, they can get positive points from other car companies to offset negative points by means of transaction or transfer.

It is worth mentioning that, according to the relevant regulations, the positive integral of new energy can be used to offset the negative integral of new energy and the negative integral of fuel consumption, while the positive integral of fuel consumption can only be used to offset the negative integral of fuel consumption. The positive points of fuel consumption can only be obtained by the transfer of affiliated enterprises, while the positive points of new energy can be traded freely.

In fact, under the pressure of "double points", there has been news that large negative points have been bought in the market. Recently, there is market news that FAW-Volkswagen, which has a negative score of nearly 1.33 million for "double points" in 2020, is planning to buy points from Tesla, Inc., which has more than 860000 positive points for new energy, with each point quoted as high as 3000 yuan.

In this regard, on April 14, time Finance sought confirmation from Tesla, Inc. China, and Tesla, Inc. China responded that there was nothing to disclose about the points trading.

FAW-Volkswagen ranked bottom again in "double points".

Overall, domestic passenger car companies as a whole are facing greater "double points" pressure. Specific to car companies, except for some car companies with outstanding sales of new energy vehicles, the more prominent the overall sales, the greater the pressure.

According to time Finance, among the 117 car companies disclosed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, 43 have positive fuel consumption scores in 2020, 71 have negative fuel consumption scores, and 3 have zero fuel consumption scores.

Tesla, Inc., BYD and SAIC GM Wuling ranked the top three positive points for fuel consumption with 860300 points, 754200 points and 440500 points. The top three automakers with negative fuel consumption points are FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC General Motors and Zhejiang Haoqing Automobile (owned by Geely Holdings Group), with specific points of-1.19 million,-920000 and-720000 respectively. The proportion of independent and joint venture car enterprises in the top ten car enterprises with negative fuel consumption points is 4:6.

As for new energy points, the top three positive points are also Tesla, Inc., BYD and SAIC GM Wuling, while the top three negative points are FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC-Volkswagen and Dongfeng Motor. Even, according to carding, nearly half of the car companies with negative new energy points belong to the joint venture camp. Among the top 10 car companies with negative points, joint venture car companies account for 7 seats.

It is worth noting that, as the best-selling brand in China, the "double points" of FAW-Volkswagen is under great pressure. In 2020, both fuel consumption points and new energy points are at the top of the negative score list with absolute "advantage". Even, FAW-Volkswagen is also the car company with the most negative points in China in 2019. The negative integral of fuel consumption is-54.94 million, and the negative integral of new energy is-145200. Although the negative score of new energy has dropped slightly, the negative score of fuel consumption is close to-1.2 million, more than double that of 2019.

Earn 2 billion more VS and reduce profit by 6 billion

Represented by FAW-Volkswagen, a series of automobile enterprises with large negative gap of "double points" are not punished by relevant departments, suspend the declaration or even production of some products, and purchase the corresponding amount of new energy positive points has become one of the few solutions.

With regard to points trading, according to China Automotive News recently quoted data from China Automotive data Co., Ltd., the highest points quoted in the industry exceeded 3000 yuan per minute in the second half of last year, and the initial forecast is that the integral price range will be 2270 yuan to 2520 yuan in 2020. This figure is similar to the recent rumors of FAW-Volkswagen's new energy positive points asking for a purchase quotation, with news that it plans to make an offer of 3000 yuan per minute to Tesla, Inc. China.

At the price of 3000 yuan per minute, Tesla, Inc. 's new energy points are worth as much as 2.58 billion yuan, while BYD and SAIC GM Wuling own 2.262 billion yuan and 1.32 billion yuan. In addition to the above-mentioned three car companies, there are a number of car companies that can earn hundreds of millions of dollars just by giving carbon points.

For some car companies with positive points of new energy, they can achieve "financial freedom" only by "buying carbon". According to public data, Tesla, Inc. has made a profit of 419 million, 593 million and 1.58 billion respectively by selling carbon points in the past three years. Without this additional income, Tesla, Inc. may have a net loss in 2020.

But for automakers with negative points, the annual cost of buying carbon credits has seriously squeezed the company's net profit.

On January 16, 2021, Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, said at the China Electric vehicle 100 Forum that under the influence of the new double points policy, the double points generated by the six major automobile groups in 2020 were all negative, and the price of new energy points continued to rise. As a result, it is common for automobile companies to increase their losses. Take Chang'an Group as an example, the profit reduction of bicycles caused by double points in 2020 is about 4000 yuan.

It is reported that the cumulative sales of Changan Automobile reached 2.0037 million in 2020. If it is calculated according to the reduction of bicycle interest, the loss of Changan Automobile in 2020 will be about 6.011 billion yuan. Changan Automobile previously announced that its operating income reached an all-time peak of 84.566 billion yuan in 2020, while its net profit was 3.324 billion yuan to reverse losses. As the provision for impairment of assets in 2020 is about 1.71 billion yuan, the net profit is expected to be reduced by about 1.39 billion yuan.

The car boss hopes that the integral price will be "adjusted".

New energy vehicles will further grow substantially in 2021, and the double points policy will put great pressure on joint ventures and independent brands to develop new energy vehicles. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the passenger Association, pointed out in an interview with time Finance on April 13 that the "double points" will not only accelerate the development of new energy vehicles in 2021, but also reduce fuel consumption.

According to the draft of "fuel consumption limits for passenger vehicles" released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology a few days ago, the fuel consumption of gasoline, diesel, dual-fuel and dual-fuel vehicles this year should be measured in accordance with GB/T 19233 and using the Global uniform Light vehicle Test cycle (WLTC). Compared with the previous NEDC standard used by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the WLTC test cycle is more stringent, and the new car faces greater challenges in terms of fuel consumption.

Accordingly, industry insiders said that for large traditional car companies, if they want to change the situation of "double points" dragging their feet all the year round, on the one hand, they should actively promote the transformation of electrification, and on the other hand, they should reduce or even cut off technologically outdated fuel models.

In this context, in addition to further increasing the expansion of new energy products, mainstream car companies, including Toyota and Nissan, plan to launch three-cylinder engine models that pay more attention to energy conservation this year. In addition, car companies such as the Great Wall and Chang'an will use hybrid technology as a breakthrough.

However, whether it is the electric transformation or reducing the fuel consumption of new cars, it will take a long time to see the effect, but the "double integral" dilemma is imminent. In the face of this situation, many automobile bosses proposed to "control" the integral price.

"it is hoped that the state can establish a points pool, solve the problem of double points, stabilize price fluctuations and stabilize the business expectations of all parties in the industry. Zhu Huarong said at the 2021 China Electric vehicle 100 Forum.

Coincidentally, Wang Chuanfu, chairman of Byd Company Limited Co., Ltd., expressed similar views at the forum: "it is suggested that the electric vehicle industry should enhance the predictability of double points prices, refer to the grain reserve adjustment mechanism of agriculture, and establish integral pools to balance the relationship between supply and demand with double points. "