Event Overview
The company predicted that the net profit of 2021Q1 was 3000-40 million yuan, an increase of about 75 million yuan to 85 million yuan compared with the same period last year, and an increase of about 65 million yuan to 7500 million yuan over the same period last year.
Analysis and judgment:
The company's 2021Q1 net profit increased by more than 20% year-on-year 19Q1, deducted non-net profit increased by more than 60% year-on-year 19Q1, business performance significantly improved, our analysis is mainly due to: (1) Q1 mainly to digest 20-year order students; (2) the company strengthens all-staff marketing, even during the 20-year epidemic, the market share still keeps increasing, and the follow-up with the arrival of the peak season, the effect is expected to further appear, reflecting the new registration. (3) remote schools have gradually reversed their losses, Yunnan has made a profit in 20 years, and Shijiazhuang school is expected to break even this year; (4) the company has reduced operating costs and improved operational efficiency through intelligent driving training system.
Investment suggestion
In 2021, we focus on the performance flexibility of the company after the epidemic, the confirmation progress of aviation school orders, and the evolution of the light asset model brought about by the laying of VR equipment: (1) VR is expected to bring cost reduction, and this year is expected to increase laying efforts; (2) aviation school training orders are expected to confirm most of this year. (3) the company's measures such as the introduction of new executives, the replacement of remote leaders, the strengthening of all-staff marketing reform, and incentives for improvement are expected to inject new momentum. The EPS was maintained at 0.48, 0.58, 0.73, and the "buy" rating and target price were maintained at RMB 24, respectively.
Risk hint
The risk of ineffective development of new business, the risk of impairment of goodwill, the risk of equity pledge of major shareholders, and systemic risk.
