Event
On April 13, Zhongtian hardcover released the 2020 results KuaiBao and the first quarter 2021 results forecast.
Comment
The 20-year performance was lower than expected, and 21Q1 grew higher than expected. In the past 20 years, the company achieved operating income of 2.665 billion yuan, + 9.63% compared with the same period last year, and net profit of 189 million yuan, + 3.1% compared with the same period last year. Among them, Q4 achieved operating income of 8.10 yuan in a single quarter, only + 3.3% of the same period last year, and the project settlement was not as expected as a drag on the performance. In addition, according to the results announcement, the company expects to return home net profit of 28 million yuan to 32 million yuan in the first quarter of 2021, corresponding to a year-on-year growth range of [40% 60%], which is higher than we had expected. It should be noted that the high growth of the company's 21Q1 is not due to the low base effect under the influence of the 20Q1 COVID-19 epidemic. In fact, the company's 20Q1 revenue is basically the same as that of 19Q1, so 21Q1 shows higher growth even relative to 19Q1. Considering that the company's 20-year Q4 newly signed order is about 1.1 billion yuan, which will gradually be converted into revenue in 21 years; at the same time, the outstanding sales performance of the real estate market so far this year will to a certain extent promote the industry prosperity of the upstream completion front-end, we expect the company to have strong data on newly signed orders in 2021, and new orders signed in the first half of the year will support the company to achieve high operating income growth in the past 21 years.
Pay attention to the progress of the new strategy, and the momentum of medium-and short-term growth is guaranteed. At present, the company is promoting a new growth strategy, actively replenishing the marketing team, and developing business in the "100 cities + top 100 housing enterprises" in the form of "filling in the grid", which is expected to open up new growth space and enhance the growth momentum in the short and medium term. At the same time, we believe that as the customer structure will be more diversified in the future, the company will gradually reduce the dependence of major customers, improve the stability of operating revenue, and improve the overall bargaining power, which will help to improve profitability.
Investment suggestion
We adjusted the company's EPS to 1.73,2.32 and 3.08 yuan in 2021-2023. Maintain the "buy" rating and maintain the target price of 62.96 yuan.
Risk hint
Real estate regulation exceeded expectations, business expansion fell short of expectations, and major shareholders lifted the ban.