Last week was the quietest week for stocks so far in 2021.

Foreign media data show that with S & P500The index hit an all-time high, stock trading volume fell sharply, and major exchanges in the United States5The daily average trading volume has dropped to95100 million shares for last year10The lowest level since April. Especially last Friday, the stock trading volume was only87100 million shares, the lowest daily trading volume since Christmas Eve.

The bear market ended at its fastest pace in history after 13 months of frenzied trading, followed by a strong rebound once in 90 years. After such a round, the calm in the stock market now seems a little abrupt.

Traders who stayed at home crowded online brokerages last year, and the approval of the vaccine in November sent investors back. Since then, more than $57.5 billion has flowed into the stock market, more than the total of the past 12 years, according to Bank of America Corporation.

But in April, everything changed and there was speculation about what caused the calm. With the easing of restrictions, the retail boom has receded. The stimulus package has also been settled. The brief sell-off in Treasuries also failed to push up yields because of loose statements by Fed officials.There are not many major events that can cause the market to make large bets.

But money managers say the calm will not last for long anyway.

Arthur Arthur Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, said:

"the stock market was too frenzied before, but now it is back to normal. Trading volumes and volatility will rise again because this year is a very special year, with economic growth, income growth, inflation and the Fed's new framework that we have never seen before. "

The s & p 500 rose 1.4% last Monday and closed three times last week, while trading volume fell to its pre-epidemic average. The S & P 500 has risen for three weeks in a row, with the Cboe volatility index falling to its lowest level in 14 months. There have been fewer bets on the Fed raising interest rates, sending yields on five-year Treasuries to their biggest weekly decline since June last year.

Affected by the previous epidemic, traders are holding back in the face of an unusually calm stock market, and they think there will be more volatility in the stock market. For example,在2019Ten years ago.7In the course of a yearVIXThe average level of the index is14.9And now it has been reached17Yes. People are betting that the market will be more volatile this summer, which makesVIXIndex与30The spread between the implied volatility is close.9The highest level in years.

Expectations for the bond market are the same. Data from Markett Economic Research (IHS Markit Ltd.) show that although the iShares 20 + Treasury bond ETF has risenBut the number of short sellers as a percentage of the shares issued rose to2017The highest since 2000Horizontal。

At the same time, Wall Street forecasters believe it is likely to digest the previous excessive valuations of the S & P 500 this year. The S & P 500 closed at an all-time high of 4128.80 on Friday, surpassing the 4099 previously predicted by foreign media.

Others say they have to be cautious because of rising US bond yields, overvalued equities and possible tax increases in the future. Tobias Lefkovic (Tobias Levkovich), chief equity strategist at Citigroup Inc, expectsThe Fed will begin to tighten monetary policy later this year, the stock market will face challenges and volatility will rise.

Lefkovic said in a report earlier this week:

Market sentiment and valuations are very worrying at the moment, but capital flows are still pushing up the index. The huge fiscal stimulus and the supportive policies of central banks have created an atmosphere in which there is no need to avoid risk. Of course, all progress should be seen as positive news, but such an one-sided view is not always a good thing. "

Kim Forrest, chief investment officer of Bokeh Capital Partners, the asset manager, is more optimistic. She expects the best earnings season since 2018 to invigorate the stock market.

Big banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co and Citigroup Inc will report results this week. Foreign media data showS & P500Index companies' profits are likely to increase in the first quarter24%Among them, automakers, banks and retailers saw the largest increase in profits. Forrest said:

"unless something as sudden as an epidemic occurs, corporate revenues will push up the stock market. We are about to enter the earnings season, and the reporting standards are very low, and I think the company's performance in the first quarter should be quite good, which will be encouraging. "