Events:
The company released KuaiBao's annual results in 2020, with total operating income of about 1.881 billion yuan, down 9.52% from the same period last year, and net profit of about 83.31 million yuan, down 33.45% from the same period last year.
The company issued a forecast for the first quarter of 2021, with an estimated net profit of 24 million yuan to 27.27 million yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 120% over the same period last year.
Main points of investment:
The manufacturing orders of high-end equipment continued to increase in the first quarter; the demand for new chemical materials was strong, and both volume and price rose. In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, the resumption of work and production of upstream and downstream enterprises was delayed, logistics difficulties, customer order delivery was blocked, the company's 20Q1 and annual revenue declined. 21Q1's high-end equipment manufacturing orders continued to increase, and the strong demand for new chemical materials and rising volume and prices led to a rapid increase in the company's net profit compared with the same period last year, and higher than the level of the same period in 2019.
Military industrial composite materials are used in aerospace defense and other fields, and are expected to continue to benefit from the high prosperity of the military industry. Carbon fiber composites are widely used in aerospace and other fields; due to the lightweight demand, rail transit equipment is expected to become a new incremental market of carbon fiber composites. The company's composite products have been used in batch in the above-mentioned high-end equipment manufacturing fields, and the orders being fulfilled include multi-type launch vehicle stealth and destructive insulation cabin in the military field, multi-type military transport vehicle insulation module, satellite antenna carbon fiber composite components, as well as maglev train front carbon fiber structure components, maglev train body carbon fiber structure components, etc., and plan to increase the layout of the compound material business. As national defense construction continues to advance, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the high prosperity of the military industry.
Satellite Internet is expected to accelerate development, and the company's composite satellite antennas are expected to usher in rapid development.
The modern communication network represented by Leo satellite Internet belongs to the information infrastructure and is expected to usher in accelerated development. The spaceborne antenna is an important part of the satellite. In the spacecraft developed and launched in our country, more than 80% of the payload system antennas are developed by the Aerospace 504 Institute, which is one of the company's downstream customers. In recent years, the application of composite materials in satellites is increasing day by day. at present, the company has products such as satellite antennas, satellite support towers, satellite reflectors and other carbon fiber composite components, with the development of satellite Internet and other industries, the company's related business is expected to usher in rapid development.
Polyester resin for powder coating industry leader, accelerate production capacity expansion. The company has been ploughing in the field of powder polyester resin for many years, with an annual production capacity of 200000 tons, sales of 169000 tons in 2019, with a market share of 19.18%, ranking first in China. The company plans to build a new polyester resin project with an annual output of 100000 tons, and continue to accelerate the expansion of NPG in the upper reaches of the industrial chain, which is expected to continue to benefit from the development of the industry.
Profit forecast and investment rating: maintain buy rating. Based on the principle of prudence, the impact on the company's performance and equity will not be considered until this non-public offering is completed. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2020 to 2022 is 83 million yuan, 155 million yuan and 200 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.10,0.18 yuan and 0.24 yuan respectively, and the corresponding share price PE is 47 times, 25 times and 19 times respectively. In view of the good growth of the company's compound timber business, maintain the buy rating.
Risk tips: 1) the development of high-end equipment manufacturing business is not as expected; 2) the development of chemical business is not as expected; 3) the progress of additional issuance and fund-raising projects is not as expected; 4) systemic risk.
