Event Overview
On the evening of April 12, the company released its annual report 2010. during the reporting period, the company realized revenue of 5.363 billion yuan, year-on-year + 11.9%, and net profit of 1.076 billion yuan, + 9.3%. After deducting non-return net profit, the net profit was 1.061 billion yuan, + 9.5% compared with the same period last year.
A number of measures have been taken at the same time to achieve steady growth: in 2020, Beibu Gulf Port routes will increase, cargo throughput will grow rapidly, and the growth rate will continue to lead the country's major ports. In February of 2021, Beibu Gulf Port has entered the top 10 ports with obvious structural advantages.
In the context of the "three structural adjustments", the Beibu Gulf Port has grown steadily and its ranking continues to rise:
Three new foreign trade container routes were opened in Beibu Gulf Port in 2020, including one ocean route. By the end of 2020, there were 52 container routes in Beibu Gulf Port, including 28 for foreign trade and 24 for domestic trade.
In 2020, the company completed cargo throughput of 238 million tons (adjusted caliber), + 16.2% year-on-year, and container throughput of 5.05 million TEUs, + 32.23% year-on-year. The reasons for the rapid growth in the throughput of Beibu Gulf Port in 2020 include:
1 vigorously carry out bulk reform and collection business: bulk reform and collection of metal ore completed 185000 TEUs, + 48% year-on-year; corn completed 147000 TEUs, + 33% year-on-year; Shenglong Metallurgy, Beibu Gulf new materials completed a total of 631000 TEUs, an increase of more than 40%.
2 to expand the transit business: to promote COSCO Shipping and Zhonggu Logistics to clearly use Beibu Gulf Port as a regional trunk port, actively carry out domestic transit business, and continue to expand the transfer business of coastal defense through Vietnam. In 2020, the water transfer of Beibu Gulf Port completed 748000 TEUs, + 241% compared with the same period last year.
Third, new progress has been made in the sea-rail intermodal transport business: new sea-rail intermodal transport lines have been continuously opened, and the sea-rail intermodal transport has completed 282000 TEUs in the whole year, + 75% of the same period last year.
4 to improve the efficiency of ship operations: the maximum amount of day and night work increased from 16294 TEUs in 2019 to 21664 TEUs, an increase of 33%.
(5) to improve the radiation ability to the leading enterprises in Guangxi, and further expand the market share: by formulating the marketing plan of "one enterprise, one policy", the company has increased significantly in iron ore, coal and other traditional sources of goods, and further expanded its market share; to achieve the throughput of copper concentrate surpassing Nanjing Port and Qingdao Port for the first time, becoming the first import port in the country.
In 2020, the cargo throughput and container throughput of Beibu Gulf Port ranked 15th / 11th among the national ports, respectively, an increase of 2 / 3 places compared with 2019, and the growth rate ranked second / 1 among the top 20 ports.
In January 2021, the cargo throughput and container throughput of Beibu Gulf Port entered the top 10 of the country for the first time, and Beibu Gulf Port continued to maintain its status as the top ten ports in February. We are optimistic that the Beibu Gulf Port will grow from a regional port to an international hub port in the future.
Under the stress tests of force majeure superimposed by the epidemic, super typhoon months and Australian coal import restrictions, the company still overfulfilled the 2020 business plan set up in the 2019 annual report.
In 2020, although affected by the epidemic, Australian coal import restrictions and super typhoons and other force majeure, the company still exceeded the business plan set in the 2019 annual report that the growth rate of cargo throughput and container throughput was + 11.52% and 32.06% respectively.
In the 2020 annual report, the company set up a business plan for 2021: the cargo throughput plan targets 265 million tons, + 11.25% compared with the same period last year, and the container throughput plan completes 6 million TEUs, + 18.77% compared with the same period last year.
Affected by the super typhoon month, Australian coal import restrictions and increased non-operating expenses and other factors, the company's Q4 net profit is-9.1% year-on-year, dragging down the annual growth rate, but the short-term negative impact does not change the company's long-term growth trend.
In 2020, Q4 was affected by super typhoon months, Australian coal import restrictions and other factors, cargo throughput of 65.485 million tons, + 4.5% year-on-year, the growth rate decreased compared with the previous three quarters.
In addition, Q4 company deducted 28.56 million yuan of credit impairment loss (13.41 million yuan of credit impairment loss for the whole year of 2020), and 49.58 million yuan of non-operating expenses due to scrapping of fixed assets (63.85 million yuan of non-operating expenditure for the whole year of 2020, of which 13.18 million yuan is Q2's foreign donation). The net profit of Q4 company is 239 million yuan, which is-9.1% compared with the same period last year, which is a drag on the company's annual performance growth. However, we believe that the short-term negative impact does not change the company's long-term investment logic, and continues to be optimistic about long-term growth.
Investment suggestion: under the background of "three structural adjustments", the company's cargo throughput is expected to maintain the trend of rapid growth. If the company's revenue per ton of goods rebounds in 2021, the company is expected to usher in a "simultaneous rise in volume and price" and maintain the company's profit forecast for 2021-22. The company is expected to return to its parent net profit of 2.04 billion yuan in 2023, + 17% compared with the same period last year. Maintain the company's target price of 21.6 yuan per share and reiterate its "buy" rating.
We maintain the profit forecast of the company's 2021-22 net profit of 1.45 billion yuan and 1.74 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to an EPS of 0.89 billion yuan. Based on the latest financial data disclosed in the company's 2020 annual report and our judgment on the company's future performance, we estimate that the company's cargo throughput / container throughput in 2023 will be 360 million tons / 8.36 million TEUs, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The revenue is 8.05 billion yuan, + 13% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit is 2.04 billion yuan, + 17% year-on-year, corresponding to EPS 1.25 yuan. According to the company's closing price of 10.16 yuan per share on April 12, 2021, the corresponding company's PE in 2021-23 is 11.5, 9.5, 8.1 times, respectively. We reiterate the company's target price of 21.60 yuan per share and reiterate the "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The macroeconomic environment may decline more than expected; the duration of the epidemic; the short-term announcement of the Beibu Gulf Port convertible bond conversion stock price has not yet been determined; in the short term, the company's per ton cargo income may fluctuate.