Hefei Department Store (000417): net profit fell 14.1% compared with the same period last year. Follow-up focus on the effectiveness of transformation.

中金公司 · Apr 12, 2021 00:00

　　2020 业绩符合我们预期

　　合肥百货公布2020 业绩：收入63.30 亿元，同比下降42.0%；归母净利润1.37 亿元，同比下降14.1%，对应每股净利0.18 元，基本符合我们预期；扣除非经常性损益后净利润为0.82 亿元，同比下降22.5%。分季度看，1Q/2Q/3Q/4Q 营收同比分别-50.6%/-40.5%/-37.0%/-36.1%； Q4 归母净利润/扣非后归母净利润1049 万元/662万元，较去年同期净亏损90 万元/368 万元实现扭亏。

　　发展趋势

　　1、营收同比-42.0%，主要受会计政策变更影响，我们测算调整后营收同比-9.1%。分行业看，百货业/超市业/农产品交易/房地产分别同比-24.0%/+23.6%/+2.5%/-2.1%，其中百货业收入同比下滑主因百货商场于疫情期间阶段性闭店；超市业态持续推进生鲜标准化执行及落地，优化商品品类结构，加快商品源头采购，实现收入较快增长；农产品流通主业经营稳健，并推进农产品市场项目落地，至2020 年底，公司已开业标准化示范性菜市场20 家。展店方面，2020 年公司关闭百货商场1 家、净关直营超市门店10 家、净开加盟超市门店5 家，关闭1 家电器门店，集中资源以实现转型提效。

　　2、盈利能力基本保持稳健。公司2020 年毛利率28.9%，同比提升9.2ppt，主因会计政策变更影响。费用端来看，销售费用率同比上升3.1ppt 至7.8%，管理费用率同比上升6.0ppt 至16.0%，我们预计主因会计政策变更及疫情期间费用支出刚性所致，财务费用率同比上升0.3ppt 至0.6%，主要受利息支出增加影响。最终公司2020 年净利率同比上升0.7ppt 至2.2%，扣非后净利率同比上升0.3ppt 至1.3%。

　　3、业务转型继续推进，后续关注变革措施成效。①继续推进主业调整：百货业态推进产品结构优化升级，加大高端品牌、优质新品牌引进力度；农产品业务开展多渠道招商、推进物流园及冷库项目建设、提升供应链能力；②强化业态和区域协同：开展全业态联动营销，“农+超”模式融合发展，加强百货、电器顾客资源的互通共享；③深化技术赋能：建设智慧商业体系，推进CRM 系统、会员体系、WBS 系统及数字化升级；着力打造智慧农批平台，扩大线上配送业务范围。后续关注公司转型变革成效。

　　盈利预测与估值

　　基于会计政策变更对收入影响，下调2021 年收入26%至76.89 亿元，维持公司2021 年每股盈利预测0.20 元不变，引入2022 年每股盈利预测0.21 元。当前股价对应2021/2022 年24/22 倍市盈率。

　　基于新零售对传统业态的冲击，下调目标价10%至5.7 元，对应2021/2022 年29/26 倍市盈率，较当前股价有23%的上行空间。

　　风险

　　行业竞争加剧及转型风险，地产调控收紧。

2020 performance is in line with our expectations

Hefei Department Store announced 2020 results: revenue was 6.33 billion yuan, down 42.0% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 137 million yuan, down 14.1% from the same period last year, corresponding to net profit per share of 0.18 yuan, which was basically in line with our expectations; net profit after deducting non-recurring profit and loss was 82 million yuan, down 22.5% from the same period last year. From a quarterly point of view, 1Q/2Q/3Q/4Q revenue year-on-year-50.6% RMB40.5% RMB37.0% RMB36.1%; Q4 net profit / net profit deducted from non-return is 10.49 million yuan / 6.62 million yuan, compared with a net loss of 900000 yuan / 3.68 million yuan in the same period last year to reverse losses.

Development trend

1. Revenue is-42.0% year-on-year, which is mainly affected by changes in accounting policies. We estimate that adjusted revenue is-9.1% year-on-year. From a sub-industry point of view, department stores / supermarkets / agricultural products transactions / real estate are respectively year-on-year-24.0%, 23.6%, 2.5%, 2.1%, of which the decline in revenue from the department store is mainly due to the periodic closure of department stores during the epidemic; the format of supermarkets continues to promote the implementation and landing of fresh standardization, optimize the structure of commodity categories, speed up the source procurement of goods, and achieve rapid income growth. The main operation of agricultural products circulation is sound, and promote the landing of agricultural products market projects. by the end of 2020, the company has opened 20 standardized demonstration vegetable markets. In terms of exhibition stores, in 2020, the company closed 1 department store, 10 Jingguan direct supermarket stores, 5 net joined supermarket stores, and closed 1 electrical appliance store, concentrating resources to achieve transformation and efficiency.

2. Profitability remains basically sound. The company's 2020 gross profit margin was 28.9%, an increase of 9.2 ppt over the same period last year, mainly due to changes in accounting policies. From the expense point of view, the sales expense rate increased by 3.1ppt to 7.8% compared with the same period last year, and the management expense rate increased by 6.0ppt to 16.0% compared with the same period last year. We expect that the financial expense rate will increase to 0.6% year-on-year mainly due to the change of accounting policy and the rigidity of expenses during the epidemic, which is mainly affected by the increase in interest payments. In the end, the company's net interest rate rose 0.7ppt to 2.2% year-on-year in 2020, and net interest rate after deducting non-profit rose 0.3ppt to 1.3% year-on-year.

3. Business transformation will continue, and follow-up attention will be paid to the effectiveness of the reform measures. 1 continue to promote the adjustment of the main business: Department stores promote the optimization and upgrading of product structure, increase the introduction of high-end brands and high-quality new brands; agricultural products business to promote multi-channel investment, promote the construction of logistics parks and cold storage projects, enhance supply chain capacity; 2 strengthen business formats and regional coordination: carry out full-format linkage marketing, the integration and development of "agriculture + super" mode, and strengthen the sharing of department stores and electrical appliances customer resources. (3) deepen technological empowerment: build a smart business system, promote CRM system, membership system, WBS system and digital upgrade; strive to build a platform for intelligent agricultural batches and expand the scope of online distribution business. Follow up to pay attention to the effectiveness of the transformation of the company.

Profit forecast and valuation

Based on the impact of accounting policy changes on income, the income in 2021 is reduced by 26% to 7.689 billion yuan, keeping the company's earnings forecast per share unchanged in 2021, and introducing the earnings forecast per share in 2022. The current share price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 2021 / 22 / 2022 / 24 / 22.

Based on the impact of the new retail on traditional formats, the target price will be lowered by 10% to 5.7 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 26 times 2021 prime in 2022, which has 23% upside compared to the current stock price.

Risk

The industry competition intensifies and the transformation risk, the real estate regulation tightens.

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合肥百货(000417)：净利润同比下降14.1% 后续关注转型变革成效

Hefei Department Store (000417): net profit fell 14.1% compared with the same period last year. Follow-up focus on the effectiveness of transformation.

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