Event: the company issued a forecast for the quarterly report of 2021, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 28.6 million yuan-34 million yuan, deducting 73.6 million yuan-79 million yuan of non-return net profit, turning losses into profits. The performance was slightly lower than market expectations.
Comments:
The issuance of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine batches increased strongly, and non-recurrent gains and losses affected performance: 1.64 million bottles of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines were issued in the first quarter of 2021, which was + 1064% compared with the same period last year. In 2020, 37% of the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine batches were issued, which was + 33% compared with the same period last year, reaching 11% of the whole year of 2020.
13-valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine continues to strongly drive the company's revenue growth, but it is estimated that the fair value change profit or loss will be caused by the increase in R & D investment and the decline in the stock price of holding JH BP (CY) Holdings Limited equity assets, which will have a certain impact on the company's homing net profit. It is estimated that the net profit from non-recurring profit and loss is about-44 million yuan, compared with 1.7835 million yuan in the same period last year.
The research and development of new products is progressing smoothly, and there is a steady stream of large varieties: on January 10, 2020, 13-valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine was granted "Drug Registration approval", the first batch of products was issued on March 30, and the first injection was vaccinated on April 22. On December 31, the subsidiary Shanghai Zerun bivalent HPV vaccine received the notice of the Drug Review Center on initiating the on-site registration verification of the recombinant human papillomavirus bivalent (16amp 18) vaccine (yeast), which is expected to be approved and put on the market in the near future, becoming a new profit growth point of the company; the phase I clinical trial of the nine-valent HPV vaccine is nearing completion; and the novel coronavirus mRNA vaccine jointly developed with the partner has been promoted to the phase II clinical trial.
The industrialization construction continues to advance, laying a solid foundation for future commercialization: the Watson Biotechnology Innovation Center project is continuously advancing; the industrialization production workshop of the HPV vaccine industrialization project has been completed, which has laid a solid hardware foundation for the company's HPV vaccine industrialization. The construction project of the International Vaccine preparation Center has completed the system verification in December 2020, and the equipment installation and commissioning work is being carried out. After completion, it will undertake the production task of exporting the company's products such as meningococcal vaccine and pneumonia vaccine to the international market.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: maintain the forecast 2021-2023 net profit of 15.52 PE 20.65 / 2.651 billion yuan, according to the latest equity estimates, the corresponding EPS is 0.99x1.32 pound 1.70 yuan, year-on-year + 54.67% picks 33.09% picks 28.37%, the current price corresponds to 44-33-26 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the approval progress or sales of new varieties are lower than expected; the risk of industry regulatory policy adjustment