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葛卫东:风控先于投资

Ge Weidong: Risk control comes before investment

紅與綠 ·  Apr 10, 2021 23:54

Source: red and green

01.pngNiuniu knocked on the blackboard:

Each of us seems to be on the road all our lives. After a wild run, you need to slow down, or even stop to have a look, take a rest, and think about the next section of the road. How to take the road of life needs not only thinking, but also balance, balance is to maximize the effectiveness of the reasonable distribution of people's limited energy, which is the so-called sharpening knife without mistakenly chopping firewood.

GE Weidong, graduated from Sichuan University, is currently the chairman of Shanghai chaos Investment Co., Ltd. GE Weidong ranked 291 on the Hurun rich list in 2019, and ranked 267 on the 2020 Hengchang Shaofang Hurun rich list with a wealth of 20 billion yuan in 2020, making him the only candidate on the rich list in the domestic futures circle.

1. GE Weidong's trading experience

Born in rural areas, he worked as an unknown foreign trade clerk in a grain company for eight years after graduation. in 1999, he began to independently manage some trading work in staple agricultural products, such as soybeans, rapeseed, barley, and so on. GE Weidong fully accumulated nearly 10 years of spot experience, and finally decided to start futures at the beginning of 2000. He did not listen to other people's advice, bet on his own house and invested in futures. In only four years, he gambled from 100000 yuan all the way to nearly 5 billion yuan. Soon after, his operation on "copper" even made the whole Wall Street tremble and reached a fortune of nearly 20 billion yuan.

2014 began to shift to private equity and equity investment, buying a 97% stake in Hon Hai Futures Company for 500 million, copying Ping an Bank at a low price and becoming the third largest shareholder of Ping an Bank. Ping an Bank's share price quickly rose more than 100%. GE Weidong just "lay" and made another 2 billion.

After the stock market crash in 2015, he lost a lot of money and became cautious. He not only abandoned his previous gambling style, but also bought a luxury yacht worth half a billion yuan. He appeared for a long time on a holiday trip in Sanya and began to be keen on the understanding of Tai Chi culture.

Second, risk control precedes investment

What is chaos theory? It is the unpredictability of the result and the deducability of the process. If the chaos theory is applied to the market, we can draw the conclusion that the market will always follow the path with the least resistance. Secondly, the way and time in which various factors are introduced into the market remain unchanged, play a different role, and the results are ever-changing. Even small factors can produce huge and unpredictable results after interacting with other factors within the system.

The market is often ruthless, and people always try to find rules in this vagaries, so theories and summaries of the good and the bad swarm constantly, and the quintessence of "chaos" investment is to admit the randomness and unpredictability of the market. being able to have a strong sense of risk is essential in investment. Chaos theory teaches us never to overestimate ourselves and to always be in awe of the market.

On the premise of acknowledging the market, there are three principles for capturing the general trend, avoiding detailed risks and making transactions:

First, can you make 3 yuan by taking the risk of 1 yuan?

Second, whether fundamental analysis supports the direction of your investment.

Third, whether the technical side also supports the direction of your investment, and whether the fundamentals can resonate synchronously with the technical side.

One of the biggest taboos in trading is panic, especially in futures, the first is homeopathy, the second is to feel the direction with the least resistance with the mind, if you think too much, you can't feel which direction is the least resistance.

Investors in futures generally attach great importance to risk control. He believes that the main reason why retail investors lose money is that they cannot overcome the two major human weaknesses of greed and fear. The key to investment is to have a clear goal in advance and follow the previous strategy.

This special industry requires practitioners to be highly sensitive to risks, neither rashly follow the crowd, nor hesitate to miss opportunities, not only that, but also essential to the analysis of the market and themselves.

GE Weidong admitted frankly that he also "crossed the river by feeling the stones." while doing a summary, he finally found a suitable way to make money for him, and in addition to these, he said that his greatest advantage was that he "knew how to adjust his mood."

Investment is divided into several stages: learning at first, then trying to survive, and then being able to do whatever you want, while the highest level is to develop an "instinctive reaction"-you can make accurate judgments without looking at any indicators or data. More than a decade of experience has given him an indifferent state of mind, not to take the initiative to attack, but like a lying tiger, always in the best state to wait for and meet the opportunity to come.

Investment strategy: fundamental research is the basis of the company's investment; band operation grasp the "homeopathic" principle, try not to participate in the short-term band contrary to the general trend; grasp the hedging principle from multiple angles to reduce the overall system risk.

Investment philosophy: stable and sustainable profit is the standard of success; soundness is the first principle of investment, and risk control is prior to investment.

Futures are mainly based on the judgment of the economic situation and trends, earning money from bands, or money from some arbitrage varieties (such as unreasonable price spreads at home and abroad or unreasonable commodity structure); while stocks earn money from stock selection and judging the general trend.

The true meaning of investment is not to lose money, it is not difficult to make money, but it is difficult not to lose money for a long time for 20 or 30 years before we know how to balance risks and returns.

If the transactions that do not meet the trading standards are filtered out, the success rate is greatly improved, the risk decreases with the reduction of trading volume, and the stop loss is made more resolute.

In the past, we took the initiative to look for trading opportunities, but now we are waiting for them to come. In the past, the purpose of reading foreign investment reports is to look for opportunities, but now it is to see that they will realize when a major opportunity comes. There will be mistakes when there are mistakes, everyone will be wrong, as long as the total amount of losses is controlled, the risk is controlled, don't get excited, it's over.

To keep a normal mind, the greater the chance, the easier it is to see, and the greater the risk, the easier it is to avoid. As long as you keep a normal mind, don't follow others.

Third, GE Weidong's 10 most profound feelings

1. This sentence is true, introverts are more likely to think more deeply, and investors should minimize unnecessary socializing, do not need praise from others, and do not need criticism from others. all you need is a lot of time to face your heart. So, sometimes it's not our arrogance, it's our profession that requires us to do so.

2. Their judgment is still based on the two basic dimensions of facts and data, but the game they participate in is played in the third dimension of emotions and the fourth dimension of dreams.

Each of us seems to be on the road all our lives. After a wild run, you need to slow down, or even stop to have a look, take a rest, and think about the next section of the road. How to take the road of life needs not only thinking, but also balance, balance is to maximize the effectiveness of the reasonable distribution of people's limited energy, which is the so-called sharpening knife without mistakenly chopping firewood.

4. research is about methodology. some people study the market too hard and become blind to one leaf. They can only see the trees but not the deep forest, and they will be confused if they pay too much attention to the details. Some people pay too little attention to the study of fundamentals, do not know the situation and changes of the target of the game, and will be too slow to understand the general direction of the market. The best thing is to have success in mind, not only have a big appearance, but also understand the current or potential principal contradictions, and carefully understand whether there is any deviation in the market's assessment of each factor. Therefore, it has become an art to study hard and keep a proper distance from the market.

5. We must know what to do and what not to do in order to make time; we must know to give up in order to improve efficiency. Making time to do something decisive is my current lesson for spiritual practice.

6. Listeners can feel the strengthening and turning point of the market direction at the first time. If you are used to being a forecaster, you have lost your open mind and your hearing. Therefore, forgive me for never expressing market views, because I want an open mind and good hearing.

7. It is actually very difficult to develop the ability of listening. First of all, you need to have an open mind and empty the water cup of your mind, but futures are already accompanied by greed and fear, so emptying is very difficult. Second, if you want to have a good understanding of the object of the transaction, you must have in mind, you must have a deep technical foundation, you must have a full understanding of the market mentality and popularity, and the three aspects are compared, analyzed, and sensed with each other. only then can you know what is the direction of strength and market resistance.

8. When I say don't predict, I don't mean don't analyze and judge. It is necessary to make investment analysis and judgment. But in this process, we must understand that our conclusion is only a possibility at most, and the definite result does not exist, otherwise your chance of winning is 100%, which is obviously unrealistic. The market system is chaotic, and people's cognitive ability is limited, so the result of our analysis and judgment is only a number of possibilities.

9. About the problem of getting stuck: after so many years of working in futures, the previous experience of studying hard and trading gradually formed effective intuition, and later relying on this intuition gradually turned into ideological laziness, no longer studying hard and thinking diligently, and no longer trying to investigate the push behind things. Slowly, you have the feeling that you are stuck, and your thoughts and intuition are also going backwards. It is necessary to study hard, not only to give you the pleasure of thinking, but also to recharge your body and mind.

10. If you understand the market, you can merge with the market. Hard to listen, in fact, with desire to listen, this is not good, but people are not saints, how can they completely abandon the inner comparison of greed, desire and other comparative heart? For spiritual practice, "if you can listen and be aware of inner conflicts and contradictions without forming a specific mode of thought, then the internal disturbance may be able to stop."

Edit / Jeffy

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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