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天鸽互动(01980.HK):估值折让有待释放 重申「买入」评级 维持目标价每股1.11港元

Tiange Interactive (01980.HK): Valuation discounts are yet to be released, reaffirming the “buy” rating to maintain the target price of HK$1.11 per share

軟庫中華 ·  Apr 8, 2021 00:00

Excluding the other cameras that will be sold, 01980.HK realized 330 million yuan in net income last year, 31.8 percent less than the same period last year; gross profit margin increased by 0.7 percent to 91.8 percent in the same period last year, and operating profit fell by 27.2 percent to 110 million yuan.

Domestic live broadcast service continues to receive

In the fourth quarter of last year, the number of monthly active users of 01980.HK 's live broadcast applications dropped by 392% to 948.3 million, or 1.0% less than the previous year; the quarterly consumer spending fell sharply by 476% to 248,000, a drop of 10.5% compared with the same period last year; and the quarterly average revenue remained unchanged at 271 yuan per person. The number of quarterly consumption continued to decrease, and the monthly active users and quarterly payment expenses of the annual plan set decreased by 32.9% and 34.4% respectively compared with the same period last year to 1235.2 million and 3.45 million, respectively. Live broadcast services collected in the Chinese region continued to receive, and the total income of online interactive services last year was 330 million yuan, down 26.0% from the same period last year.

The fair will complete the sale of other photo cameras this year and announce that there will be no more quarterly sales from 2021.

In view of the prevalence of other popular TV shows in China, the demand for live shows and the regional operations of the shows continue to suffer, and no breakthroughs have been made under the assumption that there is no change or failure to increase investment, resulting in the continued collection of business contracts in China, which can only generate inflows of funds for collection.

Looking forward to overseas markets

With the pace of Bigo Live of YY.US, Mico/Kitty Live of Chizi City, StarMe of Kunming and Uplive of Hongji, the live broadcast mode of "one-to-one" and "one-to-many" of 01980.HK continues to extend to overseas markets. The live broadcast platform of overseas shows, including MLive and BunnyLive, is still the main platform for Ji Yi's overseas expansion. However, its rule model is still smaller than its platform, and most of the areas are not reflected in the integrated system. Apart from the positive growth of overseas areas, we cannot rule out the possibility that other rural areas will gradually integrate into the market after a certain model has been reached.

Sit on financial equipment that is higher than the market value.

By the end of 2020, the market had held time deposits of 970 million yuan of people's pension funds and other things, and 260 million yuan of time deposits with an initial maturity of more than three months, which was equivalent to the market value of 1.3 x as of April 7, 2021.

On December 15, 2020, Jili sold 64% of its shares under Jin Rui'an to Sina at a cost of 260 million yuan. The transaction is scheduled to be completed in 2021, and the sale will provide more financial equipment for JMC.

There is a discount on financial assets that can be compared with market value.

As of the end of December 2020, Marketplace held about 1.55 billion yuan of realizable assets, which is equivalent to the market value of 1.6 x as of April 7, 2021. These assets include I) investment capital fund classified by second and third level financial assets with an estimated value of about 2812.6 million yuan, ii) classified by third level financial assets with an estimated value of about 260 million yuan, iii) classified by third level financial assets with an estimated value of about 440 million yuan (products are generally invested in enterprises such as those engaged in scientific and technological services in China. Including but not limited to mutual financing, smart hardware, industrial interoperability and data), iv) about 7.82 million yuan of convertible acceptance, v) real estate investment trust fund with an estimated value of about 120 million yuan, vi) products with a contract of about 130 million yuan, annual interest rate of 2.7%-3.5%, maturing or expiration date within one year, Vii) is about 50 million yuan (RMB), and the final basis for the settlement of bonds and bonds of listed equity (e.g. ELN/ELI The products are generally invested in the investment of large science and technology enterprises listed in the United States) and viii (about 1139 million yuan of people's funds).

The valuation discount has yet to be released, reiterating the "premium" level and maintaining the target of HK $1.11 per share (01980.HK) holding a large amount of capital and realizable assets, which are not reflected in the equity market. By the end of December 2020, the market held about 970 million yuan of people's pension and 260 million yuan of time deposits with an initial maturity of more than three months, which was equivalent to the market value of 1.3x as of April 7, 2021, and the realizable assets of about 1.55 billion yuan of ii), and equivalent to the market value of 1.6x as of April 7, 2021. In view of the fact that I) the core portfolio continues to decline, the stock is not used to invest in the securities trust exhibition, but to obtain indefinite returns through the investment) the ii) the bonus is not used to pay dividends, the stock cannot share its value, the realizable property held by the iii) is not transparent enough, and some of it is used to invest in derivatives at the same time. Stocks are unable to measure their portfolio returns, iv) have been pursued by short-selling institutions to claim that their obligations have been fraudulent, resulting in a long-term revaluation of collective assets.

Based on the fact that I) the value of handheld funds and future free cash flows may be released, ii) the audited balance sheet of the collection does not have the assumption that the assets discounted by iii) can not be revalued in the short term, we carry out the valuation through SOTP and reiterate that the collection is at the "benchmark" level, with a target of HK $1.11 per share. Compared with the 25.6x/27.4x/28.8x forward price-to-earnings ratio and the 0.4x/0.4x/0.4x forecast price-to-earnings ratio in 2021 / 2022 / 2023.

Negative factor

The collection items do not fully reflect the actual situation.

The value of collective assets failed to be revalued.

The investment of operating assets / stock rights carries out the negative balance and net value.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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