Core ideas:
Bohai Bank, as a listed stock bank with the youngest and high starting point, has expanded rapidly in recent years, and its operating index has improved steadily. Based on Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, actively promote the "Belt and Road Initiative", the Yangtze River Economic Belt, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area and other regional management, and completed the radiation national strategic layout in only 14 years. The ownership structure is diversified and balanced, restricted and orderly, and Chinese and foreign shareholders steadily support business development and strategic landing for a long time. In 2016, Bohai Bank established its long-term strategic vision of becoming a "modern financial manager with the best experience" and persisted in a comprehensive transformation to retail and trading banks.
With the layout of Internet consumer finance in advance, the comprehensive competitiveness of wealth management continues to improve, and the results of retail transformation are beginning to show: (1) the retail core customer group locates the "pressure generation" with strong financial demand and the "pensioners" who have accumulated a certain amount of wealth and are in urgent need of financial management services. (2) carry out early and continuous cooperation with the leading domestic Internet platforms, issue personal consumption loans through the third-party consumer financial platform, and vigorously promote the strategy of consumer finance. (3) Wealth management focuses on "vast financial management".
Brand, vigorously carry out agency services to realize the transformation of "light assets, platform, science and technology finance".
Make use of the advantages of public business and trade finance to develop transaction banks and promote light capital management: (1) the customers of corporate banks are mainly large and medium-sized enterprises, and there is a strong demand for cash management services. (2) most of the customers of supply chain financial services come from mainstream manufacturing industries such as household appliances, chemicals and metals, automobiles and clothing. (3) the development of trade finance and cross-border clearing has natural geographical advantages, as well as strategic cooperation support from shareholder Standard Chartered Bank.
Comprehensively transform to digital bank, build a platform, ecological, intelligent and lightweight system, and provide more intelligent, convenient and efficient services through agile response and rapid iteration. In line with the risk management concept of "comprehensive, active and agile", we will promote the establishment of an "automatic, real-time and accurate" intelligent risk control system, so as to lay a solid foundation for steady business development and effective risk prevention and control. help to achieve high-quality transformation and development.
We will continue to "adjust the structure, stabilize quality and replenish capital" to further improve financial performance. (1) the net interest margin has rebounded since 2018, and it still has a comparative advantage. On the asset side, relatively high-yield loans account for a relatively high proportion, personal loans are accelerated; on the debt side, the proportion of deposits is not high, and the cost pressure is high. (2) the marginal improvement of asset quality requires continuous attention to the risk of consumer loans on third-party platforms. (3) the scale of risk-weighted assets is growing rapidly, and there is a certain demand for capital supplement.
Investment suggestion: 21 years is the opening year of the company's fourth five-year Plan, and the strategic transformation is expected to be deepened.
It is estimated that the company's net profit for homing in 22nd year will increase 14.6%, 15.3%, 0.49x0.57RMB / share, and the latest closing price will correspond to PE 5.8X 0.55X/0.50X in 22nd year.
Taking into account the PB hub and fundamentals since the listing of the company, as the secondary attribute of the stock price fades, we believe that we can give the company a 21-year PB valuation of 0.6x H shares with a reasonable value of HK $3.67H shares (using the exchange rate of HK $to RMB as 0.8405), covering the "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk hint: the risk of personal consumption loans issued through third-party platforms is concentrated and the asset quality is deteriorating. The management has changed and the implementation of the strategy is not as expected.